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Don‘t beliving the improbabilities Don‘t beliving the improbabilities

08-06-2023 , 05:09 AM
I think I screwed the following hand. Kind advice is highly apprecciated. Where do I missed the exit?

Bounty live MTT. No bubble yet, but increasing blinds.

First orbit with bb ante.

I limp in Ah7h UTG with 30bb behind. Average stack size maybe 15bb. (Reason: raise makes me vulnerable to 3bet since I have to fold >10bb. Limp in early position makes my hand even seem stronger for the other guys. If some body 3bets to 3bb I still can call).

All fold unexpectedly. BB with 35bb calls after some thinking. Pot: 3.5bb

Flop comes 3h3d3s. BB bets 1.5bb.
I call (Reason: I cannot put him on quads. A pocket or higher kicker is unlikely. If its a bluff though, I dont see the point. ). Pot: 6.5bb

Turn 5h. Villain bets 1.5bb again. I raise to
4bb. Villain calls. (Reason: I still might be ahead with my Ace, he knows I didnt hit, so he bets, I try to end it. His call confuses me though -> i know im behind now). Pot:14.5bb.

River 10h. I completed a bd nut flush, yeah! . Villain bets 4bb. I hate it to call, but I do due to the pot odds.


Villain wins 22,5bb with Q5.
Don‘t beliving the improbabilities Quote
08-06-2023 , 06:05 AM
You shouldn't be playing this hand passively. Raise the flop. You have a big range advantage and he's donating you money by betting into you.
Don‘t beliving the improbabilities Quote
08-06-2023 , 08:29 AM
I would raise pre-flop to about 2.1 bb's. If you had done that and BB called (which he probably won't with Q5o) he will check and flop cbet will take it down.

As played I would fold to the flop bet. Your assumption that he doesn't have a 3 is random. BB has 3x much more frequently than your limp.

As played why in the world would you raise the turn bet? I get calling with a flush draw but you could be drawing dead here. And your raise is not even 3x.

River I probably call given we hit our flush.
Don‘t beliving the improbabilities Quote
08-06-2023 , 10:47 AM
Of course limping in early position is uncommon. Also to play A7s UTG is questionable, agreed. But limping has two benefits: it makes the others wary and males it easy to fold if somebody shoves.


And I dont see how raising preflop had avoided the outcome. With opening 3bb I‘d been vulnerable to allins. Nobody was respecting raises anyway. Bb would have called, I‘m sure with anything.

His postflop bet caught me by surprise. In the meantime I guess, I should have raised him after flop 2-3x his bet. if he calls, I‘m done.

I did that one street too late :-(
Don‘t beliving the improbabilities Quote
08-08-2023 , 03:54 AM
Fold pre except when table is super passive in which case make a standard 2x open

A6-A8s are borderline opens UTG 9-handed in any case, and we’re facing awkward 15bb stacks behind. We just don’t need to play it.

Limping your mid weak hands UTG is super exploitable. I wouldn’t.
Don‘t beliving the improbabilities Quote
08-08-2023 , 09:16 PM
Pre is whatever. If most players are sub-15BB effective I actually don't mind have a small UTG limp strat here, like raising more especially if we think opponents will be straightforward.

As played the line is probably breakeven/slightly winning in theory but we are highly dependent on our opponent betting worse flushes for value and that probably doesn't happen enough in practice.
Don‘t beliving the improbabilities Quote

      
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