ACR $88 deepstack $40k guarantee. I have been running really bad -- my average ROI has dropped from 60% about three months ago to 40% with no big cashes in that time. Sample size is still on the small size, so take stats with a grain of salt (559 MMTs + 159 re-enters).


We are about 4 levels from the re-entry closing and I have top 30% stack, even though I have been extremely card dead -- not a single pair bigger than TT and not one AJ+ until now. V here is UTG+1 and is a skilled player on the LAG-side who is the chip leader at the table with about 95 bbs. I am on the CO, and each player left to act has a perfect re-shove size (10-20 bbs).

OTTH

V opens to 2 bbs. I have AA and elect just to call for three reasons (1) disguise the strength of my hand, (2) induce a shove by the players left to act, and (3) the table has folded to most of my pf 3!s. Anyhow, BB flats and we see the flop 3-handed. Better to raise here against the big/skilled stack?

Flop (7 bbs): K96

V c-bets 2.6 bbs. I raise to 7.4 bbs, BB folds, and V pops it back to 20 bbs. I call. Still trying to figure out what to do here. I think the only worse hands that will call if I pile here are flush draws, but I suppose I can get V off a bunch of equity with a shove. But I thought lets just play cautiously and see how it develops IP.

Turn (47 bbs): T

Yuck. V bets 10.5 bbs.I hate that bet -- it seems perfect. But decided I had to call.

River (67 bbs): 5

V piles.

I tank and ...



Thoughts on all streets welcome as I feel I played suboptimally on all of them.

Preflop: Fine some of the time. I would still probably 3bet being this deep

Flop: I prefer flatting in this spot. You might get 3 streets of value with Kx, but you are going to fold out AQ/AJ/AT, all small pp, random junk, etc. Getting re-raise is a bit sucky here, but given the board, I think you might have to ripped it here. how many BBs do you have? If you are only 60BB deep, then either you are going with it or you fold. If you have 80BB then we can call an re-evaluate.

Turn: You can't fold to that small a bet sizing.

River: I think you just have to pitch it this point. All of the draws got there, 87, spades.

Before the hand had about 80 bbs. After my flop raise, I had 70 bbs. I was afraid that I get destroyed by his calling range this deep -- and I don't chase away enough equity. Maybe that's wrong given the drrawy texture.

I flat sometimes pre here, especially when the players behind have perfect stack sizes to squeeze shove, but I don't like doing it this deep. If I flat AA, it's going to be at a stack size I'm comfortable stacking off on almost any flop. 80BB deep I'm 3-betting, especially since either a)a more solid player will generally have a strong enough range to continue vs. the 3-bet, or b)a LAG player might 4-bet you lighter based on his table image and style.

Postflop seems OK, maybe not ideal, but it's a tough spot and I'm not sure what is ideal. I don't think there's anything you beat on the river unless he's grossly overplaying AK. You could consider a turn fold, since that's one of the worst cards in the deck for you, but it's hard for that small size.

But when I think about it when a good V uses that sizing on the turn, we are almost always seeing a river shove; so couldn't this be an exploitive fold?

I'm torn on all streets.

If CL has been raising a lot pre-flop from EP then I have no problem calling with 3 potential jammers behind. But if CL hasn't been raising a lot in EP/MP then I prefer a raise to get it HU. Still there is an advantage to being in position in a small pot so there is that for calling...

On the flop I have no problem with either calling or raising. The raise gets the BB to fold gutters and BDFD. And even bottom pair or a small PP. But typically if I am not raising pre-flop I want to induce bluffs from the CL in as small a pot as possible.

Once there is a re-raise on the flop I am again torn. Because we have under-repped our AA I have no problem with a jam especially because the rebuy is still open. I don't think CL has flush draws a lot but it is fairly likely he has Kx. And he may call thinking we have an A high flush draw. I guess we can call to see if the flush comes in or a 2nd K hits. But I am not really comfortable at this point.

On the turn that kind of bet is very polar. It usually signals a drawing hand. And my attempt would be to jam. But it can be KK or AXss.

On the river I would be tempted to call. But I don't really think we are ahead. Given the bet sizing on the turn I think we are getting the right price to call.

Yes, I think so. Especially coming on that turn which puts you behind really anything conceivable you were ahead of that 3-bet the flop. Seems designed to set up a river shove and the best-case scenario is that you're drawing to two outs on the turn and one of them you still might get moved off if he shoves.

Unless he's just going nuts with AK even after that turn card, I think folding turn is fine.

Been thinking about this hand for a cpl days and think that flop action falls into the unknowable category.

Yes V can overvalue here or bet raise combos, but if you’re accumulating easily via 3! on a juicy table with little resistance, I’d even consider an edge pass on the flop once he makes it 20bb, because you’re eventually going to make a decision for your entire stack with one pair.

Once the T!s hits the turn, what do we beat other than AK which we block?

I understand the reflex action to raise/iso the flop but if you’re going to flat pre then I like the soft flat flat approach post. it fits our pre flat range nicely and leads to safer value ott otr v a wide range.

I’d just 3! pre. it sounds like you’ve been actively and profitably doing that and why weaken your 3! range with an AA flat? and if a 20bb stacks wakes up with 99 AQ++ A5s or w/e, I doubt their shove range will be too much different for open-flat v 2bb->6bb

Tldr just 3! it

I think this nails it. Thanks OS.

The way you played it - fold turn regardless of the sizing of the V.
3B pre.

Whenever, I go tricky about my big pairs pre, I always say to myself: "be ready to drop them right from the flop, don't get in love with them".