Hi,

65 left in live poker comp. 100k up top.

Pays down to 56.

Blinds are 1500/3000 with 3000 ante. I have 105k in the BB. So 99k after posting.

Fold to SB who is a fairly solid player. He makes up and I look down at A spades 10 clubs.

I make it 5k more. He calls.

Flop

A K J (KJ diamonds).

He checks.

So there is 19k in the pot.

I decide to shove for a big overbet. I got a gutshot for outs but think I am good.

Is this just bad?

I feel AK, AQ and AJ would raise pre, as would aces for which I have a blocker, as well as kings and jacks.

Thanks.

I think you're right that you're beat relatively rarely on this board, but he can have KJ or be trapping with one of the pairs for a set. He can also have QT for the made straight.

That's not too likely though, so let's assume he has either a lower ace or a diamond draw. (If he has nothing, he will fold no matter what you bet.)

The problem is that your bet forces him to play perfectly. He'll fold the diamonds for sure and the lower ace most likely (it would take enormous stones to call here near the bubble with naked top pair as the non aggressor on a board that massively favors the aggressor) and only call if he has you beat.

If you just bet, he will call the diamonds and lower ace, and you still have the opportunity to get away if he gets aggressive later on.

You're near the bubble so it doesn't really pay to do stuff like this when you can just bet normally and preserve your decent stack for better spots like taking out people with <= 10 BB.

Thanks for the reply.

The payout structure is top heavy. It was a buyin of 1.25k and the bubble paid around 2.4k or something like that.

I like your analysis.

If I am going to raise preflop it would be another 9k to 12k. Raising 5k isn't really going to get too many folds. But I will often just call with ATo because it will catch a lot of bluffs and SB will check a lot of flops that we miss and we can bet and win the pot a lot of the time. Another reason I call in spots like this is we are relatively close to the bubble and I would prefer not to let this get out of hand. The other issue is how frequently we think the SB will c/r. I would always fold to the c/r.

As played I would never shove 33 bb's into a 6.5 bb pot. Yes we will take it down a lot but when we are up against QT or AJ/KJ we will get knocked out. Given this size pot and the fact that the flop hits our range hard, I would normally bet like 13k (66% pot) and go from there. My assumption is that SB has you covered (if not I might shove if SB has less than 39k). With a big hand I would expect either a call or a shove from SB. But since you can have 2 pair+ villain will likely fold a lot of hands.

If SB calls the flop bet I suggested I will mostly check back the turn and call a river bet especially if the flush draw has missed.

Yup. I think I should have raised bigger pre. At least 3bb’s.

Villain had me covered but not by a lot.

I think I need to be more careful going forward around the bubble.

Agree with the rest of your analysis, but don't we want to keep weaker hands in here? We are in position, have a great hand heads up, and it's gin for us if we hit our T and he has KT/QT/JT or we hit our A and he has a worse A.

If we are in the SB I agree that our sizing should aim to induce folds in most cases.

I would raise bigger pre too since we don't really want to make it too easy for him to call. We have an unpaired offsuit ace here, so we're fine taking the pot down now, and a lot of the limp-calling range isn't going to be hands we dominate. 3.5BB total is probably about right.

As LifeNit said, shoving the flop just lets your opponent call with everything that beats you and fold everything that doesn't. Even if his range of hands that beat you should be slim, shoving 5x pot is pretty much never a good idea. This is a fine flop to bet small and then size up on a blank turn.

Thanks for the replies.

Agree with all the above. Looking back I could have bet the flop and kept it fairly smalll, I would have lost some chips but might have been left with maybe 15 bb’s.

He was not happy when I shoved and reluctantly called. He had KJ.

Turns out I was still around 37% and I bricked. It came something like 3 clubs 6 spades.

Yup, lesson learned.

All hands that limp from the SB are weaker than ATo unless it is an attempt to limp/re-raise. I would much rather villain folds pre-flop than play it out. But if we are going to play it out I have no problem making it a bigger pot in position when we know we have a better hand. Also, it means a lot of hands that will be ahead if the flop doesn't hit our range like A rag or 64o will be out so the range loss won't be so bad.

Also, I agree with Nath to make it 3.5x preflop and not 4x because we have only 33 bb's. So 10.5k not the 12k I initially said (its funny that I missed this because under 50 blinds I will make it 3.5x, under 100 blinds I will make it 4x and over 100 blinds I make it 4.5x...)

Yep this is a really horrendous spaz punt, at least you won’t do it again though bro!

Tbh if I have KJ there I’m probably folding fearing a spaz trap.

As for comment that Villain can only have worse hands than AT here, not buying that vs good players sorry.

To the commenter above. KJ is never behind here in this spot

Let’s agree to disagree.

One of those bad / terrified OMC types might just freak out and shove sets and AK on this flop, but unless you're up against that specific type of player it's going to be very rare that KJ is behind to a 5x pot shove.

Then again, 5x pot shoves are very rare anyway. Other than that type of player, I'd assume someone is trying to protect AQ / AT rather than missing out on value with a really strong hand.