Villain is unknown, random , just got moved to the table no reads. Flats the 2.3x open, then proceeds to SNAP raise the cbet, I call and then SNAP shoves the turn.

Thoughts ?

No Limit Holdem Tournament
PokerStars
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
$50+$5

Stacks:
UTG (10,203)
Hero (35,620)
MP1 (43,221)
MP2 (12,183)
CO (20,743)
BTN (13,612)
SB (18,344)
BB (9,272)

Blinds: 250/500 Ante 60

Pre-Flop: (1,230, 8 players) Hero is UTG+1 Q Q
1 fold, Hero raises to 1,150, MP1 calls 1,150, 5 folds

Flop: J 2 4 (3,530, 2 players)
Hero bets 1,662, MP1 raises to 6,000, Hero calls 4,338

Turn: K (15,530, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 goes all-in 36,011, 28470 to Hero (28470)?

Villain avg BI $30 , plays about 1100 donkaments, major loser at -40% roi (after hand)

nvm the more I think about it its a fold, given remaining stack and my edge over the field/table at that time

shove flop obv

u bet super weak on flop and got raised... not folding

no offense but I dont need bad advice, think a bit more about it

His flop raise is freaking hefty it a bit more then the pot , with your reads its less likely that he has AA or KK , he could play AJ like this but its a fair amount a spew, with the turn card completing one of the only bluffs he would play this way (ak) i think the turn is a fold, The flop is a super tricky spot though dunno what id do

maybe im missing something? u open QQ pre in a sunday donkament full of satellite players, get flatted by a random, flop comes J 2 4 rb, u make a weak looking cbet and get raised almost 4x,

against a random i would be fistpump shoving now, you think he raises his set 4x on the flop then overbet shoves turn?

Looks alot like AJ to me. I would have a hard time finding a fold here given that Villain is terribad (from your description of his stats). It just looks like spew with TPTK.

I expect you're over thinking this as well. If villain plays a set this quick on a super dry board then he is as liable to overplay his Jx all of which you beat on the flop and again on the turn with the exception of KJ.

Like I think your open and c-bet are both fine but consider how villain reacts to your line with the various parts of his range. Like he is rarely going to put you on an overpair there are no real 2pair combos in his range and sets don't usually play this quick

I'm not arguing how he reacts to my perceived "weak bet" (lol?) but to say shoving > anything else is a little bad since I doubt he calls the rest of his stack w/AJ the same way you doubt he has a set here.

His range ins that spot could be KK/AA (although I would doubt that given the way he fast played w/e on this board) AJ/KJ , SETS (yes sets, maybe not JJ but 22/44 for sure) and maybe a couple random combos that maybe picked up a heart draw on turn on not

Against that range we're merely crushed tbh and I have to analyze this from the point of variance : is it worth it or not ? We're 1100 left, 110 away from money (merely 25min) so people will soon start to play scared and chips are waiting to be picked up lots.

If I fold I have a 55BB left stack , which in this new structure and with this field is more than enough to crush safely deeper. If I call and lose, I'm out in a very marginal spot; If I call and win I have ~120BB at the new coming level (300/600) which honestly don't make that much a difference unless I will have 2-3 100BB+ stacks moved to my table or viceversa

So look at all these before you say "call" or "fold"

Uhm I def. don't agree with this. Fwiw, I said I only looked at villain's stats AFTER the hand. So his stats have no relevance during the hand. Maybe he might do that now that I see his stats and then I would agree , but to assume that during the hand .... I can't

Also , do you think I or anyone decent ever flats JJ/22/44 this deep vs Hero ? ever ?

Don't think Dereds is implying that no villain could ever have flopped a set here, but I think his point is that most villains won't play a set this fast, and I tend to agree. Though, to be fair, crappy players do all sorts of stuff that I don't expect. To me the flop raise looks like Jx, likely AJ or KJ, and maybe some mid-pairs like TT-77 who don't believe you have a J or an overpair and are putting you on AK.

As played I am folding turn because it's a ridiculous bet and like you said you're still pretty deep here. I actually do like the 3-bet shove on flop...or if you'd rather 3b/call. Overpair vs. donk on dry board = nutzzzzzzzz.

looks good to me if you call turn,
i mean there is no real hand he can have you that has you beat, JK maybe but whatever.
the only looks kinda bluffy to me and he is drawing thin unless he has exactly Ah3h/Ah5h

not sure about raising flop gets him to fold Jx as played on this board but if i call flop im not folding OTT.

the more i think about it A3hh or A5hh is is most likely hand here.

pre is fine, flop cbet is fine but I would have shove to his rr on flop..noway he has a set here imo, feels like KJ/AJ..

I am flatting 22/44 on the flop a ton of the time an absolute ton so I guess I'm not decent, but here's the thing if we flat pre to setmine and we raise a super dry board with the effective nuts (22/44) the opener folds a good chunk of his opening range and we make nowhere near enough to make the setmine profitable.

and what stats have I referred to?

and like do the maths or something but if you are turning down +Cev spots to crush the field then I doubt your edge on the field is as big as you think it is

Shoving or reraise/call on flop.

More combos of TP than sets/overpairs and with your little flop bet villain reriases tp enough of the time here (especially given your post hand reads) to make a shove good imo.

OTF, against something like KK+,JJ,44,22,AJs,KJs,QJs,AJo,KJo you have 46% equity which is enough given the money already in the pot. Even discounting some of weaker TP hands you still have the equity. And if you discount the weaker tp hands, you have to discount some combos of 44/22 imo.

As played, I fold turn with 56bbs behind. Now loosing to all combos of KJ as well as KK+,JJ,22,44. Dont have the 40% we need versus that range.

You probs need to get it in on the flop. When the K falls and he overshoves your decision gets tougher if only because donks love KJ.

I was assuming I was gonna get mixed results since this is something you don't often run into in any tournament , especially a Sunday major. Dereds, I wasn't implying turning down a +cEV spot, I'm by far the least probable person to do that since I don't think I have THAT big of an edge but, I have enough to take me deep most of the time and go from there.

As far as not raising sets I wasn't implying either that you have be decent or not to raise the flop w/22/44 even JJ, but it's player dependent and I might do it vs most of the regs or very aggro donks that I know for sure will play back since most of the time I get 0 credibility when doing it. As to all ranges, I'm pretty sure I'll do be raising that cbet THIs deep w/ the likes of 56+backdoor, 22/44 maybe sometimes JJ but way less often, airball, overs+backdraw, AA/KK/air etc...

The point is this is a random donk and I'm entering a huge variance spot and the likeliness of that being necessary is what I am disputing here, not the hand itself.

Results hidden just in case you wonder when you're done replying/analyzing this:

I'm still a bit confused as to why I need to overshove 70bb on the flop : what exactly am I getting called by ? I played enough mtts on Stars to realize it takes a special kind of donk to stack off with TPxK on this board 70bb deep, even on a Sunday. Likely result is to be only called by hands that beat my measly overpair and be drawing thinly.

Risk/reward ration in that case is highly unfavorable

im gonna say whats been on everyones minds...just shove the raise on the flop and quit being a nitbitch

I don't understand why the small cbet is being accepted when he's 70bbs deep.

Pot if you keep betting 47%: 25800

Pot if you bet 60%: 37600

Thats 23.5BB's your leaving on the table the times he stations off 3 streets. Maybe you were planning on making bigger sizing on the turn and river but I don't see any reason not to cbet at least >50% on the flop.

If he is going to be raising 1.5x the pot or whatever on the flop and then overshipping the turn with pretty much the nuts, he's probably bad enough to stack off with AJ here (I was mostly being facetious with my KJ comment, though there's a bit of truth to it). I mean, I'm not super happy to see him making huge raises on a dry board and we can certainly make a realistic argument for folding to his turn shove but I just feel like his range is far from sets and sets alone on the flop. There's just so much donk factor going on that it's tough to fold overpairs when we are legitimately scared of 9 combos of hands (maybe 15 if we want to include AA but I doubt he flats AA there). Maybe I'm being reverse results oriented but I just see people make this play with weird hands like 66-TT or AK here too often to really want to fold the flop (see my thread about folding KK on a 234 flop in an $11 tournament, not sure how different play is here in a $55).

Truth be spoken, I hated my sizing after getting done with the hand, it's something I've been working on lately and lose value sometimes on dry boards like this cause of it, nice to notice that, Thx

post less pls