defend BB with a short stack, late stage of the tournament - MTT Poker Strategy

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defend BB with a short stack, late stage of the tournament

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10-11-2023 , 12:18 AM

jackd1

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 4

Hi guys!
I'm interested in your opinion on the hand.

3 tables left, BU 31\22 82 hands very loose player, SB unknown

MP2 21.5 BB
CO 15 BB
BU 36 BB
SB 73 BB
BB(Hero) 12.5 BB

Hero is J

BU raises 2 bb, SB call, hero call

pot 6.7 bb

flop Q

sb check, bb(hero) check, bu check

turn T

sb check, hero? push 10.5 BB?

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10-11-2023 , 07:21 AM

3-betandfold

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 2

Good post and question. Several things to consider.
1. What % chance are you ahead
2. What hands call you down and with what % chance of outdrawing river.
third; is 3/4 size turn bet or smaller (About 1/2 remainder of your t life or less) enough to take down pot instead of push?
Lastly, your table is 5 handed, next hand will be merged with others forming 2 tables, correct?

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10-11-2023 , 01:39 PM

jackd1

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 4

this is the first hand after three tables left, 3 players sit out.

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10-11-2023 , 02:15 PM

ledn

MTTLivePro

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,108

Jamming just lets them fold everything worse than Jx so thats not the play.

I would just go 30-40% on the turn and jam a non club river.

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10-11-2023 , 03:44 PM

jackd1

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 4

Wouldn't it be better to try to take stack 17 bb? How to give the opportunity to get club river or J, and be left with 8 bb?

Last edited by jackd1; 10-11-2023 at 04:07 PM.

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10-11-2023 , 04:51 PM

ledn

MTTLivePro

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,108

Sure most of the time you get folds and have a 17bb stack. But are you ever ahead when you get called? I say no, not 3 ways. You are either going to be against a naked Jx, Jx with a club, AJ, or a flush. So best case you are chopping when called, worst case you are drawing dead.

The small bet is better because you actually get called by hands that you beat (2pair, Acx, 9cx, pair + club) and you still fold out a lot of hands that have a small club (underpairs with a club, random under cards with a club, Axo with a club, etc). Plus just folding out Ahi straight draws.

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10-11-2023 , 05:39 PM

jackd1

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 4

Quote:

Originally Posted by ledn

you still fold out a lot of hands that have a small club (underpairs with a club, random under cards with a club, Axo with a club, etc)

I'm not sure I'll get a fold even from x2

for a small bet. BU is fish calling station. A few hands ago, he called a continuation bet half pot with J8o on the flop 5

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10-11-2023 , 07:03 PM

ledn

MTTLivePro

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,108

Those trash hands calling are not bad for you either.

You are just too concerned about the bad thing that happens 25% of the time and not what happens the other 75%, which is the river is clean and now you get to jam for value and potentially get a call from two pair. Though if both players call on the turn you probably cant jam the river for value anymore.

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