800/1600/1600

First orbit of day. No reads. We are about ~30 from the money.

Hero utg+1 with 39.5k makes it 3400 with 9c9s

Sb (100k+) calls. Heads up

Flop 742hhc. Check, I bet 4k into 9800. He calls.

Turn is 7s, he leads for 5k, hero??

Physical description could be useful. AP you have to at least call turn. SB does have more 7x than you but its not like he has that many 7x combos. I think this is mostly a draw trying to set its price OTT and less often a 7 or a weirdly played 1010 or JJ.

If we have AA-QQ no heart I really like shoving turn over this sizing.

You’re supposed to bet big on this texture

Easy call...this is a very common play in HUNL (to donk for ~1/4 pot when the middle or bottom card pairs ott.) We do this with a very wide range, which includes some trip combos. It can occasionally be done w TP on boards where OOP has a lot more trips.

ur right. maybe this isn't thread worthy.

Hero calls. River is 6h (74276hhh). Villain shoves. Hero?

easy call.

Def threadworthy and legit tough spot imo...I'd have to confirm but 88; 99 no heart seems like our first hands to fold. This assumes that we are opening and cbetting a pretty tight range (overpairs and 2 overs+FD), which would be prudent given that SB should be pretty strong/pair heavy flatting OOP with ~20bbs eff.

He's shoving for almost exactly pot, so we can defend 50% of our range, or just the overpairs with a heart.

Well top pair now just made those trips so does it ever make sense for 33-66, 88 or the one remaining 99 combos to do this? Protection against two overs isn't that important anymore considering this turn is a pretty big brick for the cbettor and those very hands from which he may desire protection now have half as much equity, is that right?

In theory I guess OOP definitely *should* have more 7x but in practice does he really have that much additional 7x here? I guess 87s can make for a (suboptimal?) flat pre. I shudder to think 97s is a good flat for SB. A7s, sure., Anything else?

Do you think you can find a reasonable flatting range for SB such that this isn't a totally suboptimal if not highly exploitative turn donk?

I can definitely see like JhTh or QhTh or Ah5h or something like that taking this line as a bluff, having little to no SDV and maybe getting a reluctant fold from A-high or K-high, but at the same time, how would donking potentially be superior to checking to the cbettor and letting him act? It's not like SB can't, in the case where IP checks back turn, then bomb the rivers that disproportionately benefit SB. IP can't just barrel OTT willy nilly with the very hands SB would be targeting for folds OTR, can he?

I've tried a few different ranges so far and every time I get SB checking to IP OTT 100% of the time.

Is raising turn an option if we think V is dense with FDs or worse pairs that for some reason decided to donk turn? Part of me really wants to stack off here.

Turn is a call and re-evaluate on the river (maybe we even bink a 9). River sucks, we should fold. =
I think it's kind of an interesting spot for him to donk bet so small. We can't really raise anything that doesn't commit ourselves. If he is on a flush draw, it allows him to see the river cheaply or to get over cards to fold.

Imo the most interesting (and the most challenging) aspect of this hand is that it's very difficult to make assumptions about villain's range, strategy, tendencies, etc.

Given that our hand begins with villain making an error/mistake (by flatting SB with 20bbs effective where every hand is more profitable as a raise or fold), it makes very little sense for us to attempt to make logical assumptions (that are based on profitable strategies.)

How can we assign a range when (logically speaking) there shouldn't be any combos in it? If you held a gun to my head and made me pick a hand to flat, I'd choose AJs or KQs. How can we surmise the meaning of a donk lead when villain shouldn't, can't, doesn't have any 4x; 2x; or 7x? Why would we run a Sim when villain probably thinks that a solver is someone who is really good at mediating disputes?

When I play live, I try to pay attention and pick up on sizing tells. In Day 2 of WPT ME last year, a fish with ~65-70bbs (who had previously opened from EP to 2.5x) opens to 3.5x UTG. I immediately assign a stronger range and am happy to call in MP1 with 33. Flop is 83Tr, he cbets and calls my raise. Turn is a 6 and he donks big into me for ~70% of his remaining stack. I shove and he shows 86s. If it had been 662ss4xQx and it went bet-check-bomb river, I could have made a huge error if I decided to hero.

My mistake was that I made a logical assumption in a case where no logic exists. Maybe 86s is his favorite hand, or the year his child was born? I could not have been more wrong, even though my thought process was sound. While it's not often difficult to detect that an error has been made, it is very difficult and sometimes counterproductive to try to determine the specific type of the error.

RE: our options ott, since we can't eliminate and have no idea how to discount 7x, shoving becomes a less desirable option. I would only shove AKhh; AQhh and AJhh and call every overpair. If we shoved hands that need more protection like JJ and QQ that would probably be fine as well.

Otr, in a spot where we are seriously lacking pertinent info and nothing to this point makes any sense, I like to use a strategy that can't be exploited/minimizes our mistakes (calling at Minimum Defense.)

I actually just saw a typo I made here that will impact the decision tree. Flop was '743' not '742'. There was a one-card straight possibility on his river shove (although of course, I don't expect him to have many 5s or 7s in his sb call range for 25bb effective). When he led turn, first instinct was a flush draw semi-bluff (QJhh, JThh, KQhh) and to just stack off on non-heart rivers. It's not beyond reason though that he turned 55 into a bluff OTT tho

Meh I think sizing should be a little bigger on flop. Meh with 24.5 bbs, min opening here is going to put us in so many gross spots post flop. I almost lean shove or fold pre honestly. Not sure how many at table but this shove is -0.03 bbs at a 9 handed table I believe according to Nash. I think we can get away with shoving a little too light with this many bbs live as we know some people just don’t understand shove charts/ ranges.

Personally I see nothing wrong with ripping 99 pre here. It’s not ideal bc we are never ripping AA/ KK here but I think it’s close. Open is fine but we have to X/fold so many flops / play so cautiously post flop to so many board textures.

Btw on this stack just open for the min. 3400 and 3200 are basically the same. Don’t think we mind a bb defend super light here if we know how to play correct postflop.

^are you using Pio solver for the calculating the Nash?

Why would JJ , QQ need more protection compared to 99? Because the calling range has Ax hands ?