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01-28-2024 , 06:52 PM

3for3poker

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,506

ITM with about 32 left in a Venetian $400. I am moved to a new table. 25BB effective. All stacks are about the same.

I open 66UTG (8 handed). +1 (Asian 40YO), and SB (75YO Woman) call. Flop is JJ8 with a flush draw; we all check.

Turn is an offsuit 2. Check to me, I 3BB into 8, +1 calls, Woman folds.

River is an 8 (14BB pot, 20BB effective), counterfeiting me. I have about 20BBs left. I decide to bet 7.5 into 14BB.

Thoughts?

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01-28-2024 , 11:27 PM

LifeNitFL

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 239

Looks good. Better hands you lose to that will fold include the flush draw and 33-77. Can't imagine he has a J. He will sometimes have an 8 but on balance I think it works more than the 1/3 of the time required.

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01-29-2024 , 06:49 AM

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,688

Might as well bluff, especially with the number of draws that now beat you but should fold.

I don't know if you need to go this big. 8x and Jx aren't folding to any bet; something like T9 or QT with the flush draw isn't calling any bet. The +1 player probably isn't calling turn with ace high either unless it's the nut flush draw. On the other hand, if this opponent is good enough to bluff-raise river if he senses weakness, you don't want to bet too small, either.

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01-29-2024 , 02:01 PM

Mr Rick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 6,076

I like the bluff because you were the original raiser and are more likely to have an A. I also like it because the villain in position didn't bet the flop which makes 8x less likely. Other reasons I like it are because we don't block any of the draws and it makes us having Jx/8x possible.

I typically don't bluff when I am counterfeited but that is because I am usually not the original pre-flop raiser and it has failed every time I have tried it...

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01-29-2024 , 02:36 PM

Bubblebust

adept

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 830

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Rick

Not only is OP more likely to have an A here, he is much more likley to have a big over pair with this line.

So yes, very much like the bluff ... but as some have suggested, could go smaller.

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01-29-2024 , 05:25 PM

Mr Rick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 6,076

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubblebust

Not only is OP more likely to have an A here, he is much more likely to have a big over pair with this line.

So yes, very much like the bluff ... but as some have suggested, could go smaller.

I would be mostly c-betting on this flop with an overpair (except maybe QQ because we block gutters) because I just don't want gutters to have a free card. And often a gutter will fold to a paired board where our range includes the paired card (Jx here).

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01-29-2024 , 06:31 PM

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,688

Speaking of bet sizing and anecdotes similar to this situation, I did try this once in a live tournament a year or two ago when my 44 got counterfeited on like an A53A5 board. I barreled three streets and got called down by KJ. I ran into him on break and asked about the call, and he said he thought I bet so big on the river I wanted a fold, so he called.

(I bet 1/3 pot on the river.)

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01-29-2024 , 08:36 PM

LifeNitFL

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 239

Quote:

Originally Posted by nath

Lol. Tournament bet sizing is so strange.

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01-30-2024 , 03:11 AM

chillrob

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Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 20,995

Quote:

Originally Posted by LifeNitFL

Don't really disagree with your recommendation, but he doesn't lose to 33, 44, or 55.

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01-30-2024 , 11:07 AM

#10

3for3poker

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,506

Quote:

Originally Posted by chillrob

Don't really disagree with your recommendation, but he doesn't lose to 33, 44, or 55.

Unless Villain turns those into a bluff, which I suspect he should.

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01-30-2024 , 12:07 PM

#11

LifeNitFL

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 239

Oops. Not sure it changes anything. Villain could also beat us with T9 which I didn't think of initially.

3for3, he should absolutely turn those into a bluff, but I don't really think most people at this level know how to do that, especially once already facing a bet.

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01-30-2024 , 02:08 PM

#12

3for3poker

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,506

Quote:

Originally Posted by LifeNitFL

Sure, I wasn't thinking he'd bluff raise the river. I was thinking I can't beat 33-55 if I check, because they bluff now.

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01-30-2024 , 02:43 PM

#13

Mr Rick

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Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 6,076

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3for3poker

Sure, I wasn't thinking he'd bluff raise the river. I was thinking I can't beat 33-55 if I check, because they bluff now.

I don't bluff anymore when I am counterfeited with a higher 2 pair because the original raiser has Ax so often (especially after checking the flop) and always calls.

However if the original raiser is also counterfeited and doesn't bet then they will just split the pot whereas the bluff stands a decent chance of succeeding (especially against draws that aren't A high).

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01-30-2024 , 06:55 PM

#14

3for3poker

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,506

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Rick

Note that because the turn was a 2, my 6 plays, so I would beat 33-55. But not 77 😀

Your experience is likely true, Rick, so that just means we need to value bet thinner when we can beat an Ace, with pairs bigger than the 8 here.

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