Live tournament - $600 buyin. Table is full of relatively strong players for this buyin level (FL live tournaments are generally pretty weak, and this one had a very different vibe). Very early in the tournament (level 2). Villain is a MAWG. Both of us are playing fairly tight.

Blinds 100/200 BB Ante 200
V (EP) raises to 500
H (MP) QQ - 3-bets to 1300
V calls
Heads up - Pot 3100
Both of our stacks were around 20k (M ~= 40)

Flop 245 rainbow
V checks
H bets 1200
V raises to 3500
H folds

This fold may seem tight, but my read was that V was pretty tight, middle-aged guy, not a young aggro pro (young aggro pro I snap), probably not getting out of line much, if at all, this early, and since he seemed like a decent player I figured he would keep barreling with one of two possible holdings: a set, or a straight draw + pair like 53. (It was early enough that calling a 3-bet with 53 was only a little loose). Since I'm nearly dead to a set, and flipping with a straight draw + pair, I felt he was too far ahead. Since I did not feel I had enough to call down all the way, I felt I might as well fold flop instead of wasting more money.

After the hand I realized he actually could have had four possible holdings:

1) Set - I have 9% equity
2) Straight draw + pair - I have 50% equity
3) Medium pair trying to figure out where it's at - I have 90% equity
4) Semibluff like AJ - I have 70% equity

Against this range, this now seems like a pretty clear call. If he checks turn, I can safely bet small, assuming he has either a semibluff or lower pair and will pay off 1 more street. But what if he bets again, then bets river? Do I have to call down for my tournament life? Or should I 3-bet the flop? (To me, that play seems obviously bad, since nothing that will call has less than 50% equity.)

Let's say he barrels all the way with the set and the straight draw, whether he hits or not. And let's say if he has the medium pair or semibluff, he'll call 1 street if he misses, but I'll give up and fold if he hits. (A or 3, pretty obvious). Let's assign each event equal probability. Set = (0.25 * 0.1 * 40500). Straight draw = (0.25 * 0.5 * 40500). Medium pair = (0.25 * (0.9 * (20000 + 4800 + 3000)) + (0.1 * (20000 - 4800 - 3000))). Semibluff = (0.25 * (0.7 * (20000 + 4800 + 3000)) + (0.3 * (20000 - 4800 - 3000))). Add it all up, and Call Expected Stack = ~22k, whereas Fold Stack will be ~17.5k. I might have just answered my own question, but other perspectives are welcome.

I should add that I generally struggle with being too nitty. Over the last couple years my cash rate in live tournaments is well over 30%, but I've failed to make deep runs. This is a large part of why I'm posting and obsessing over this relatively insignificant hand - is this indicative of a larger overall problem? Do I need to take more marginal chances like this early (it's been my style not to) to have a chance at turning my min-cashes into final tables?

3-bet bigger pre this deep.

You have position and you're deep. All the stuff you're worried about him doing on later streets, you're deep enough and your hand is strong enough that you can call his flop check-raise and see what actually happens on the turn, both on the board and in terms of whether villain fires again or not.

You're definitely too nitty if you're folding this this easily, especially considering the possible overpairs he has that you beat. You say you think he's nitty and that's why you folded, but nitty players don't open 53s in EP and call a 3-bet with it. So your range for him doesn't seem to agree with your assessment of him.

His 5th possible holding is a straight with A3s.

Still I would call his small c/r. He can also have 77-JJ. Or Ax (especially with a BDFD). He can't have KK+.

I will often fold the turn to a large bet and call a smallish bet. Large river bets are going to be a problem though and those I have called have mostly been strong hands/rarely bluffs.

If he checks the turn I often check back. On this board though I probably bet/fold unless of course an A or K hits.

I also agree with Nath - my 3-bet sizing preflop would have been 1500.

The fold on this flop is a bit too weak IMO. Yes, you could be against a set, but you are very close to the top of your range. You are going to get run over if you fold to a flop c/r on this board. I think you have to call and re-evaluate turn.

As others have said, your 3 bet is too small. I think its a fine size for some situations, but this needs to be larger being this deep.

Do you really think players are this loose that they open 53s EP and call a large 3 bet?

If you have an overpair in a 3 bet pot, you are suppose to lose some chips. For me to fold to this action, I would need to have a very strong read on the villain (maybe they are an 80 year old that has only shown big hands when they have made bets over the last several hours).

Thank you to all those who responded. This is very helpful and constructive feedback.

In theory yes but in a live 600 tournament you're playing with a lot of inexperienced unbalanced exploitable players. I think I would call here but there's some live knowledge that might make this a fold - it just matters how often the population raises smaller overpairs, hands like AJ, etc. Consider also the frequency at which they raise - 55 will probably x/r here 100% of the time, but hands like AJ/AQ/TT might raise 50% of the time or something significantly lower. Interesting spot - hell if I feel I have a big edge on the field and he's more ABC I might just fold the flop.

pokerfan655 - agreed about this hand being live changing the dynamic. I call this 100% of the time online, but live requires major adjustments.

The opponent in this hand had very low PFR, only opening 3 or 4 pots if I remember correctly, but there was one he opened where he bet flop and turn, got raised, and immediately mucked, which made me regret my QQ fold.

Thanks for your (somewhat contrarian) opinion.