This hand's been bugging me for a while ...

1,300-entry live NL tourney $175BI is down to four or five tables. Break is coming in about two minutes. We're all in the money. Hero in BTN has ~450k, Villain1 in CO has ~450k. Villain2 in SB has ~350k, Villain in BB has ~200k.

About Villain1: pretty active but not a maniac. Definitely not a nit. Aware of table position.

About Villain2: quiet player, not overly aggressive, doesn't seem willing to run a big bluff but will obviously put chips in with a good hand.

About Villain3: loves walks on the beach jk really don't have a read on him.

Blinds are 15,000/30,000/5,000.

Folds to Villain1. Villain open shoves entire stack.

Hero sees AJo. Hero considers that Villain1 could be open shoving just to steal blinds before the break. Hero notes that Villain1 does not seem to like Hero taking his time here.

Hero also considers Villain2 and Villain3 could also get in on the action based on whatever they're holding, pot odds, etc.

Too risky for Hero to call the shove?

i think I might call for 15bbs. If he's been pretty active like you say, and a halfway competent player I could see him shoving a good amount of hands.
I don't think you'd have him dominated but probably flipping. Has he been open shoving often? Does he open w weak a's?

Unless V has been shoving a lot, probably a fold. I think this is AK fairly often

Fold. ICM tells us we want to be the one moving in, not the one calling. Find a better spot.

I'd lean towards a call based on your read that they don't want a call. AK should be pretty relaxed,

They should know that they can shove very wide with these huge antes and people's unwillingness to gamble. It's unlikely to be QQ+.

I'd estimate we have between 55 and 60% vs his range - high variance - but then our next move is going to be high variance with 15BB. ICM factor is not that big yet.

Results:

Meh 15bb and no pressure to take a risk here. But if you feel like you have a solid read that villain is hoping you'll just give him a pass, then it could be a call. The problem is you're not likely going to be more than a slight fav, unless he's shoving >25%.

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AJ is an easy call for me here along with a fist pump - he should be shoving reasonably wide given the large antes in play.

He should be shoving any Ax which we absolutely crush and loads of other stuff that we're a significant favourite against.


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+1