Have a hand to discuss: We are at BB 35bb with Kc9h, 30/48 & 44 paid. 6-max table , MP with about 40bb raises 2 bb, folds to us & we call. Flop KsTc8h, we check , MP raises pot(5.2bb), we call. Turn Jc, we check, MP raises 10bb, we call. River Jh, we check, MP shoves. What do we do here?


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I would do the same up to the turn.

The turn bet of 10 bb's is over 35% stack and is pot committing basically. So if I call that bet I typically am committed to call the river shove.

I likely will fold to the turn bet though unless its vs a player who overbluffs. While it does open up a straight draw the Q makes an Ax hand beat us. Also, vs AQ we are drawing dead.

The river J does change things a little though because QJ/AJ/J9s are now beating us. There aren't a lot of hands we beat and those hands are basically all PP's < 88 which I would expect not to 3 barrel bluff. Unless MP is opening all KXs/QXs where we would chop or win (and then we probably should call)

Even though the pot-size bet on the flop and the near pot-size bet on the turn seem fishy, there's not a lot of reasons that you could find to call the turn bet, let alone the jam on the river. If this player has been overaggressive, like Rick said, maybe you find a reason to keep playing the hand.

There's really not a ton of cards you want to see on the river except a 7 or another K. That being said, do we ever think it's a good spot to raise the turn and hope he's beat? This would only be in the case that you think he doesn't have it, of course.

I'm not sure, this is a really tough spot, but I still think you have to make your decision on the turn. I'm curious what other people think too.

I think I agree that the turn is the real decision point, and I'd probably fold considering the bet sizing and the bubble. Really unusual to be bombing the pot this big, on this board, at this stack depth, no matter what hand he has. Unless I've seen him just pile in money like this on a bluff, I'll just give him credit for having it and move on, try to stay out of difficult spots that could cost me a lot of chips until the bubble bursts.

Curious how people read his sizing. It seems pretty poor. At these stakes I tend to read this as a scared made hand -- weighted toward top pairs that beat us and two pairs.

I kinda doubt he's betting JQ and J9 on the turn with a bunch of outs and 2nd pair, though it would be a nice bet by him to get hands like ours to fold. We're praying for him to have something like a turned flush draw -- Ax and 67 can work.

I think his line is strong enough that we can just fold the turn -- aggressive player or not imo.

He shouldn't be betting this large on the flop with any hand, I'm pretty sure. And his sizing significantly narrows our calling range, so when we call and he blasts off again on a turn that strongly connects to the board, I'd just fold. His whole value range with this sizing beats us, and we have no real outs to improve-- I'm not sure we can confidently stack off on any river but a 7. (But we probably will on a king, too.)

There aren't even semibluffs that make sense, really, the way it ran out, because any obvious ones like turned flush draws or straight draws either have enough showdown value not to blast away or shouldn't bet the flop that large in the first place.

If this is live (and maybe online at certain stakes), I actually wouldn't be surprised if he had AA.

Curious what everyone's thoughts are on leading on the turn? Bet about a 1/3 pot. If villain 3b then we just lay it down there. But he may call and check river. If he calls and leads river we fold. If he checks we can value bet river if we receive a favorable card, or just check and see if kings hold.

It did turn out this way, quite foolishly we called the river as well for our entire stack only to see AK. Thanks for the insights . Will work to improve here.


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