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Bubble Hand Analysis Bubble Hand Analysis

10-09-2021 , 04:50 PM
41 paid. 43 left. I was 28th with 20bb. I'd been folding and folding, even AQ in the face of a pf all-in, to burst the bubble but it was slow going.

Folds around to the button who jams. This looks weak to me - a steal - and mid pp or Ax at best. I'm in the BB with JJ and figure I'm between 55-82% to win (plus I think AQ/AK would raise first but willing to go all-in) and you have to be willing to gamble so I call.

Should I have folded? On one hand I think I should have sucked it up and folded no matter what until the bubble popped but on the other 'm hearing that GTO states that A2+ is profitable for a BB to risk their tourney life and call a button jam

8,000/16,000 (2,000 ante) - 7 players

UTG: 258,750 (16 bb)
MP: 237,851 (15 bb)
MP+1: 781,522 (49 bb)
CO: 2,031,381 (127 bb)
BU: 460,892 (29 bb)
SB: 138,986 (9 bb)
BB (Hero): 320,790 (20 bb)

Pre-Flop: (38,000) Hero is BB with J J
4 players fold, BTN raises to 458,892 (all-in), 1 fold, Hero calls 302,790 (all-in)

Flop: (659,580) 6 6 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (659,580) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (659,580) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 659,580

BU shows Q Q (two pair, Queens and Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 83%, Flop: 92%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

BB (Hero) shows J J (two pair, Jacks and Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 17%, Flop: 8%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

BU wins 659,580

Last edited by MissVix; 10-09-2021 at 05:06 PM.
10-10-2021 , 03:59 AM
If you know the payouts and stack sizes at other tables/average stack you can plug the hand history into ICMizer to get an objective answer.

I would call and be very happy about it based on the info provided.
10-11-2021 , 03:36 AM
yes - fist pump call - don't get so preoccupied with the bubble
10-16-2021 , 08:55 PM
GTO will say to call what is +cEV but that won't align with ICM. But this is still a snap call.
10-17-2021 , 01:02 AM
What are the stakes of this tournament?

I can't imagine folding here unless I have a specific read that button will rip 30 BB with QQ+.
10-17-2021 , 11:01 PM
Never fold here. You are way ahead of a jam range. Bad luck when you lose. I feel this shove would be more waited toward hands like 55-1010 in comparison to qq or kk.

Button is jammin 20bb here with you as the biggest stack he has to worry about. From the button- villian can profitable shove all pocket pairs, k10o+, q10+, j10o+ k5s +, q8s+, j8s+ etc. you should be doing very well against that range. I know with icm you want to be cautious but you canít fold jj here IMO. You are overfolding if you even consider jj a fold here.

Per bash 33+ with pairs is a plus chip ev call. Not saying you should call with small pps here due to icm but just shows you what Nash equilibrium says. Jj is too strong to fold here. When you lose, just shrug your shoulders and say I wasnít meant to win this tournament or cash.