The short stack in the tourny was the short stack at the table. I was thinking that they're going to survive for at least 5-10 hands and a min cash isn't exactly life changing or anything. The button probably has two overcards, but a lower pair or any Ax is also possible. I didn't really put him on an over-pair when he raises 3x on the bubble, he probably wants to induce action, not dissuade it. Also, if you go with this hand, what are the weakest hands you go with?

Bovada Hand #4730110720: HOLDEM Tournament #57914095 TBL#3, Normal- Level 7 (150/300) - 2023-04-03 02:01:25
Seat 24: Dealer (4,024 in chips)
Seat 11: Small Blind (21,327 in chips)
Seat 6: Big Blind [ME] (2,315 in chips)
Seat 18: UTG (2,927 in chips)
Seat 7: UTG+1 (725 in chips)
Seat 12: UTG+2 (9,182 in chips)
Dealer : Set dealer [1]
Dealer : Ante chip 30
Small Blind : Ante chip 30
Big Blind [ME] : Ante chip 30
UTG : Ante chip 30
UTG+1 : Ante chip 30
UTG+2 : Ante chip 30
Small Blind : Small blind 150
Big Blind [ME] : Big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealer : Card dealt to a spot [Jc Tc]
Small Blind : Card dealt to a spot [6h 3h]
Big Blind [ME] : Card dealt to a spot [9s 9h]
UTG : Card dealt to a spot [2s Kd]
UTG+1 : Card dealt to a spot [2d Qd]
UTG+2 : Card dealt to a spot [6c Qs]
UTG : Folds
UTG+1 : Folds
UTG+2 : Folds
Dealer : Raises 1230 to 1230
Small Blind : Folds
Big Blind [ME] : All-in(raise-timeout) 1985 to 2285
Dealer : Call 1055
*** FLOP *** [2c Ad 4s]
*** TURN *** [2c Ad 4s] [9d]
*** RIVER *** [2c Ad 4s 9d] [8d]
Dealer : Showdown [Ad Jc Tc 9d 8d] (High Card)
Big Blind [ME] : Showdown [9s 9h 9d Ad 8d] (Three of a kind)
Big Blind [ME] : Hand Result 4900
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot(4900)
Board [2c Ad 4s 9d 8d]
Seat+24: Dealer lose with High Card [Jc Tc-Ad Jc Tc 9d 8d]
Seat+11: Small Blind Folded on the FLOP
Seat+6: Big Blind 4900 with Three of a kind [9s 9h-9s 9h 9d Ad 8d]
Seat+18: UTG Folded on the FLOP
Seat+7: UTG+1 Folded on the FLOP
Seat+12: UTG+2 Folded on the FLOP

That hand history is atrocious to try and read.

If you expect people to give you some useful info/feedback I would recommend presenting the information in a way that’s somewhat readable.

Bovada / Ignition, Hold'em No Limit - 150/300 (30 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Seat 18 (UTG): 2,927 (10 bb)
Seat 7 (MP): 725 (2 bb)
Seat 12 (CO): 9,182 (31 bb)
Seat 24 (BU): 4,024 (13 bb)
Seat 11 (SB): 21,327 (71 bb)
Hero (BB): 2,315 (8 bb)

Pre-Flop: (630) Hero (Hero) is BB with 9♠ 9♥
3 players fold, Seat 24 (BU) raises to 1,230, 1 fold, Hero (BB) 3-bets to 2,285 (all-in)

Even with the short stack still at the table, you vpip is going to be greater than 0. Also with the small stack, the button is going to have alot of raise folds. I think this is close, but I may go with it. The only problem is that when you are called, you are probably going to be up against over pairs or AK most of the time. I think the button call with JTs here is horrible.

The button's call is automatic. He had to call 1055 to win 4900. Now, his RFI size...

This is the stone bubble and the short stack UTG1 has 2.5bb...fold pre. Your initial assumption about a blunder is correct. The BTN >4x opened off <14bb so for the average rec villain I'd opt to assume it's a strong hand that they consider vulnerable. Of course it'd be best to know the payouts and some villain (BTN & UTg1 specifically) VPIPs, but regardless this is a fold. You can easily run this spot in HRC/Icmizer; which I'd recommend you use (I prefer HRC) if you plan to play a lot of SNGs.

Assuming the UTG1 2.5bb stack will survive past their BB is a strong assumption. Even if they double or triple up in the blinds they'll still have ~less chips than you and if they're folding their BB/SB with 1/2 their stack in the middle that's amazing and they'll just all in from antes the next round.

I can't say what the worst hand I'd go with in this spot is without knowing the exact payouts and running it myself. My assumption would be in unadjusted ICM it's 77+ AJo+ with 77/ajo being near breakeven. It could be 66+ KQ/AT+ or 99+ AQo+ and then once we start playing with other people's ranges it can change dramatically. We can play with villains ranges a lot in our favour and JTs won't be a get in. There is certainly a way we could make it a get in but that would be grasping.

@Raistlyn M
He didn't shove with JTs (that was the BTN open), he shoved 99.

I just ran this in ICMIzer. The first run, the button is only supposed to open 4% of hands based on his sizing and ICM pressure. So we only shove with KK+ and AKs. Obviosuly he was opening more than 4%, since he had JTs. Then I node locked the button range to 20%. 99 is still a fold:



If I node lick him to 30%



So this is closer than I first thought. It really depends on how wide the button is getting here.

My bad, good get in then. Would be tough to make 99 losing. As shown by jjpregler's solves.

This also assumes that Button will respond correctly to a 3!. He should probably call 100% of his range given his price, but he might not.

If you look closely, ICMIzer has the button folding to the shove. In cEV he can't fold anything, but with ICM risk premium, it is not just a pure pot odds equation any longer. He's needs about 19% in pure pot odds, but if you add 18% risk premium, now he needs something like 37% equity to call off.