BB defend range near Bubble. Venetian $400. Hero has 224K at 8K BB; average stack is 400K. 35 left, 32 paid. UTG opens to 21K (Looks like OMC, but a little looser than that). Reg who just moves to table flats. SB calls for his last 4K. Both live stacks have about 450K. What should my calling/jamming range look like here? There are many reasons to tighten up here. The bubble, the strong range of UTG. There won't be a dry side pot if I call, so there will be leverage against my short stack. My actual hand is 86s, but I am more interested in just how tight to be here.

Also note that with the BB ante, the SB probably has something of value, since he could have folded and hoped to min cash off his 1/2BB stack.

I think with less than 1BB left and three from the money, it's probably pretty close for the SB as to whether they can fold into the money before they have to pay the BB. Especially if other micro stacks are aware that there's a really short stack. So I don't think the SB's actions are relevant here. They probably should be getting in with basically any two cards at this point because they're risking virtually nothing to win a pretty substantial pot.

So I think the big missing variables are:

1. What is the UTG's stack?
2. What is the regular's stack and position?

Our risk premium is going to change significantly based on whether we cover either of the players who are involved in the pot. If we cover our opponents, we can defend wider and/or 3-bet more to put pressure on those stacks. If those stacks both cover us, we have to be tighter.

My guess is that we're going to be defending fairly tight, somewhere in the neighborhood of 30% of hands, probably 3-betting some of our premiums and maybe open jamming stuff like AK and QQ/JJ. I can run an HRC calculation with better information about stack distributions, but my hunch is that we're supposed to be pretty tight here if we're covered.

+1.

With 4 tables left, hard to see who else can be very short. I'd call small pairs + and suited A here looking to flop a monster. 8-6s is likely a fold for me oop with <30 bigs. If we were not on the bubble, I'd prolly peel and end up folding most flops.

We can probably fold a lot of bad offsuit hands here (even a fair amount of offsuit Ax) and trashy suited stuff like T5s. The raise size is kind of big so we can probably fold even more than you'd think (and we don't have to defend as often multi-way) but I'm still probably peeling 86s just because it has some straight/flush potential and shouldn't interact with a lot of our opponents hands. (the initial raiser and caller probably shouldn't have much 8x or 6x at all) This means that we often make really clean made hands when we do spike the two-pair or the straight.

I would def call 86s here bc you can win a massive pot and fold easily on a lot of board textures- aka im being super cautious on the bubble here bc 25bb is a solid stack if you run well in the money. I would be more willing to fold hands such as K5o q5o and A8 o and worse. I would call with those hands that were suited though.

86s is a great defend here bc you can see a flop and hope to hit something with a lot of equity. I’m folding a lot on flops such as Q83 though bc we don’t want to play a guessing game on the bubble here. Only looking to stack off with flush draws, 2 pair, trip type hands on bubble. Think it’s a mistake to call one with mid pair as we want to preserve our stack for once the money bubble bursts. Get that min cash and then go crazy- aka take your standard 3bet shoves against potentially light late position opens / play normal shove ranges once bubble is burst.

I did give that information, in the middle of the post. I guess I need to remember: paragraphs are your friend.

Both stacks have 450K ish.

Lol, see that now.

Doesn't really change my analysis or ranging - when you're covered you have to be pretty tight because you'll easily have a 10+% risk premium on top of defending multiway.

If you can't (and shouldn't) contest the pot when you flop a pair, even SC have poor equity. The nature of this pot makes that almost surely correct; you are against one very strong range, one reasonably strong range, and both players can put you in ICM hell.

Should we be willing to stack off with a naked flush draw? We'd need a lot of FE to make that worthwhile. When we are called, we are in pretty bad shape.

I think we can stack off with a combo draw or 2P+. Is that enough to call 1.625BB?

Would we call with a 2 gapper? 2 unconnected suited cards like Q4s? It's not just this hand I am interested in, its the whole range.

I think folding bb here is way way too nitty. We shouldn’t even play tournies if we are folding this. I’m perfectly fine playing super nitty post against 2 others. On the bubble- sure I’m fine not calling the 13k if we wanna preserve stack to go crazy once bubble bursts but I lean call.

We can potentially get a nice double or x-jam with a ton of equity when we flop well. I’m fine shutting down if we flop a pair in a spot where 2 villians are going to have better hands than us. Think you are overthinking if you hate that you can’t continue with a pair. Think being on the bubble here dictates that we play super nitty post. I can’t fold pre here. I sigh cry inside when flip is J86 etc and I’m fine just letting 13k go if we have to x fold. I don’t think losing 13k materially affects our bubble situation bc we most likely can fold into the money with 3 left to bust.

86s is an ICM fold here. This is a sim and the only detail I wasn't able to find is the very short SB. But this should be close enough for a good estimate of the range.

I wouldn't consider folding this at any other time besides right before/on the bubble, or perhaps some FT bubble spots.

I am curious about what stuff you'd check jam with 'a ton' of equity. I'd think a naked flush draw doesn't cut it at this point.

Would need to know payouts to give a good answer. I'd prefer a fold here but depending on some factors defending sounds fine.

Makes sense.

Always appreciate solutions and not that I disagree about 86s being a fold, but this chart showcases an issue with using these predefined and bucketed solutions. We have KTs being a near 80% vpip while kjs is ~10%. We have 22-88 being higher vpips than 99, etc. There are specific reasons this is the case and as always the outputs are vastly dependent on the inputs. My guess is peoples' opening and flatting ranges are extremely specific (the 13bb SB in particular), but that is not always the case in game.

I get the KTs being a better jam candidate than KJs due to blocker effects. Unblocking the weaker Jx in ranges that will fold is quite valuable.

I wouldn't think there'd be much 9x in either range here, so I don't see folding 99. Interesting that 22 is the best small pair, since that has the best chance of flopping a set.

You can see the whole payout structure here:


https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.php?a=r&n=904851

FWIW, UTG won the tournament...

I'm likely calling this and hoping to hit a straight, flush, trips or two pair or a double draw with 15 outs or more. If I had <27 blinds I would let it go here probably.

I wouldn't continue with a single pair vs a flop bet.

Thing is near the bubble I would expect no bets on a flop where a player is bluffing. In fairness here there is a side pot so there could be bluffs, semi bluffs. But even here with no huge stack, I wouldn't expect bluffs much.

This and other reasons to believe there is some chance of an old school live near bubble check down which substantially improves your equity realisation with 86s despite what the solvers say

So I’d call

Interestingly, this is the exact opposite of what happened. The flop was 3 suited babies (in my suit, of course), and UTG bet With AJo with the jack of the flush suit.