What do you guys think of my play?
I folded a pretty fine hand here.

Based on stats villain looks tight preflop (112 hands):

VPIP: 15
PR: 8
3bet: 6

PokerStars, $200 + $15 - Hold'em No Limit - 80/160 (16 ante) - 9 players


UTG: 7,195 (45 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 21,566 (135 bb)
MP: 9,956 (62 bb)
MP+1: 27,577 (172 bb)
LP: 16,913 (106 bb)
CO: 8,258 (52 bb)
BU: 5,758 (36 bb)
SB: 15,010 (94 bb)
BB: 19,595 (122 bb)

Pre-Flop: (384) Hero is UTG+1 with 7♦ 8♦
1 fold, Hero raises to 352, 1 fold, MP+1 calls 352, 4 players fold, BB calls 192

Flop: (1,280) 3♦ 9♦ 4♠ (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 640, MP+1 folds, BB calls 640

Turn: (2,560) 2♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 1,707, BB calls 1,707

River: (5,974) A♥ (2 players)
BB bets 16,880 (all-in), UTG+1 (Hero) folds

Total pot: 5,974
BB wins 5,974

looks fine.
I don't mind playing this hand as a XC otf, I would be playing a lot of my range as a XC, and your fd is kind of crap 3ways.
You can cbet some stronger fds that have better equity to barrel.
NBD though and not totally confident on my approach there.

You folded a flush in the sunmil against a random ?

I’m calling all day here

I'm a payoff wizard and a half and I don't play these things to fold flushes so I call.

Don't wanna hijack the discussion but is it too nitty to wanna fold pre from UTG+1? If we can't confidently get to showdown with a flush, whats the point?

Wwy c/c a lot as OR on 943?

Seems a good combo to cbet w/ high freq.

Fair question to consider... and the size of the river bet polarizes V's hand.

IMO folding the river as played is fine. He's not bluffing with a high enough frequency for you to call profitably. He knows you've fired every street including a sizeable turn bet (which he check-called) so what does he have in his range other than Ad (especially since you've represented it as part of your range)? He may be willing to bluff with Ad5x depending on how he views you (overly nitty?).

TY. I feel (especially w/ hero's pre sizing) that we're always getting flatted behind by better diamonds at these stack depths (maybe if we open this hand going 3x or pot would be better to try to deny some more equity, make hands like {KdTd} a little less comfortable to flat, though I doubt that works in practice) so this hand has some serious RIO problems. I'd prefer opening at shallower depths (50bb or so) and definitely having antes in play would help IMO.

Flop it tough, but in a good way. All options seems OK, although x/c seems like the worst since we only have 8-high. At first I though it seems like a slam dunk cbet. It sucks to block {77} and {88} but it's also nice to unblock {22, 55, 66} which likely fold if the sizing is right, plus theres tons of 2-over combos we can target for folds here, and if called it's really NBD given our draw. But now I'm pivoting towards x/r being best, yeah even though we only have 8-high, I'd rather be bluffing with 8-high than x/c. If we get a free card, we're basically getting a gift (awesome) and if a villain wants to lead out with a bet and if he does so even a little bit too wide, we can put him in a lot of really crappy spot with a big x/r.

I get the desire to x/c but I'd personally read that as being capped at A-high, we're just asking to be exploited real hard if we go down that route. Of course, our situation
OTF might just be a manifestation of this being too loose an open...

How would you exploit an opponent you perceive to be betting all flush draws and overly dense in A-high when they check?

The turns and rivers you would attack hyper-aggressively are the exact runouts that improve this hand, which is a great case for x/c.

But personally I would x/r this and most flush draws while x/c non-wheel AXdd.

Well, at the risk of going off on a tangent--and with the caveat that this strategy is probably more appropriate towards the end game when the pot is a huge %-age of our stack and winning chips more clearly translates into winning tournament $EV (and people playing tighter would certainly help too)--if I'm villain, and I'm IP, and I perceive you as checking a mostly A-high and weaker range that's devoid of draws when you're the OR and the flop is [943dd], I'm just going to be ultra aggro and bet out a massive chunk of my range and be barreling basically 100% of that chunk. If your range doesn't have enough pairs--and it's a sick spot for the OR to start checking aces or kings especially combos w/o a diamond--or draws that can float or x/r, or if you aren't comfortable x/c {AK, AQ} for two streets, I'm pretty sure you will be losing in this spot and I'll be printing.

I'm probably splitting my sizings--bigger for bluffs to maximize FE and smaller w/ value to maximize floats--and I'm betting literally every hand that has any semblance of SDV (for value and protection) or hot/cold equity (for value or as a semibluff) or is unblocking the very hands I'm targeting folds from (pure air bluffs)--and I'm mainly targeting folds from A-high because that's what I perceive your range to be mostly--which means basically every K-high combos, every Q-high combo etc. (K-high seems like a decent SDV hand here actually) especially ones w/ a diamond, I'm just going to go bet-bet OTF and OTT and I'm expecting to take down the pot w/o showdown upwards of 80%, maybe more, roughly the likelihood that your A-high doesn't pair up or make a wheel or something like that OTT

At the very least, this is reason for hero in this hand to start w/ a check and go from there. We need combos like this in our checking range so that we have a decent range to continue w/ vs aggression.

And now I feel like I've gone off on a wild tangent so I'll shut up now and hope I don't sound totally off the wall. And if I do, thanks in advance for the dose of sanity

BC MP has a concentrated range with all sets present, and BB has the sets + some 2p combos that Hero wouldn't. GTO certainly advocates low cbet for OR OOP against CC on most boards and can't imagine 943f is an exception.

This hand gets into annoying spots facing flop or turn raise by MP and has only mediocre barreling potential, whereas JTdd QJdd can comfortably defend vs. raises/turn bets and can barrel turn with much better equity both vs. MP and BB.

The more I think about this hand, the more confident I get in the following two conclusions:

1. fold pre
2. x/c flop

At this depth MP range will be quite capped but yeah might be not too wide given he's on a LJ position. He should fold 44,33 ofc pre.

GTo advocates nothing and strats depends on specific ranges.
It often check a lot to c/r a lot

Bottom line for me: what is the point in playing 7d8d if you’re going to fold a flush? Were you hoping to flop 456 rainbow or 887?

To me the river donk is suspicious. You have bet flop and turn and there is no reason to think you would stop barreling on river, so if villain has nut flush a xr would be better. Maybe if you have KK or QQ type hand you will check behind so a normal size donk bet would get value from these hands or weak A's that have just hit tp. Overbet doesnt make much sense as a value bet, so I think you got to call here.

If V has the nuts then planning to x/r is lower EV than betting out. Yes, IP player bet flop and turn but without the nuts will slow down a large % of the time on river. Better to take the initiative with the nuts and bet river than hope you get the chance to x/r. Yes, the river donk over-sizing was suspicious but that makes it a good bet against players who over-think.

Bottom line, your 8-high flush got check-called twice and now faces a donk shove for 3x the pot on the river... calling off 105BBs (out of your remaining 117BBs) is a low % play IMO.

Exactly this.

Could V have made a straight, set, 2 pair or even top pair here and thought his hand could be good?

Shoving here to me looks like he’s repping a stronger hand than he actually has and possibly puts you on a bluff.

I wish you had called now just so I knew what he had!

What is villain expecting to get value from? Such a big overbet will fold out everything except flushes which you will be betting anyway if checked to. Big bet makes no sense as value bet. OTOH the big overbet DOES make sense as a bluff because hero has to fold most of his range (and might even fold small flushes as seen).

From mdf pov this is a call since we have to defend ~25% vs his bet and we have only 15 plausible better combos that won’t even play this way w/ that high freq. (As I was typing this, I realised that calling this combo otr is depending on our strat w/ AXdd otf.)

Now in practice, I don't think we are getting exploited here often at all and villain isn’t prolly bluffing optimally either to begin with so folding seems fine.

Otf, checking and betting is close in ev and I would do some mixing.

I'd imagine he's hoping to not get 3x donk jammed on on the river, just like 99.99% of other hands that are not the nuts.

Do the majority of players only jam river with the nuts? Never with straights, sets or bluffs?

Correct, I'd round those hand down to 0% for the majority.

But that's besides the point. OP need not pay off vs unique action just because he opened.

I agree wynner88888 post. If you fold flush with 78s with only 3 suited card on community, what's the point to play suited connector from the beginning? I will call 10 times if given 10 times chances on this hand. It look so suspicious on river donk. Villain story doesn't add up at all. I believe the majority that hold nuts here will c/r on the river instead of jam.

I believe both straights and bluffs will do and nuts jam are less likely. I always do that especially against EP or UTG raise, LoL. How often can you find a 5 on a UTG raise? Simple question.

A5s 55