Hi

I have been stuck on this page of the book for 2 days.

It is a chapter called "fold equity".

I will make their example as simple as possible:

Pot is 64,1bb.

They Fold 85% when we shove 68.7bb.

So we win 53,5bbs on average.

15% of the time we lose our shove, making it minus 10,3bb.

53,5bb-10,3= 43,19BBs.

They call the last number the "EV of bluffing". Now this is where it gets messed up:
They say: If we shove for more than 43.19BBs, it is an unprofitable bluff.
They say: If your shove is for less than 43,19BBs, it is profitable


If this calculation is somehow right, everything I or anybody knew about poker is wrong.
We should be printing even if they called 47%.

And how did they pull up a profitable size to bluff from our shoving size?

It does not make any sense.

Could somebody please try to figure out what they were trying to say.

I guess they might be right and it is just that I need to reorganize everything I have ever thought about the world.

That it truly is better to save the chips, than get the _85% x pot_ Folds by bluffing.

Please discuss. Thank you.

I think that you assumed that the fold equity of 85% does not change with a smaller size shove. If that is the case, then yes, the book conclusion is clearly wrong. But, fold equity typically is a function of the bet size. It turns out that if hero bets 43.19 a fold equity of about 50% is breakeven for hero.

So, I would check to see if the author states somewhere how fold equity is related to bet size.

Incidentally, for the stated inputs, hero’s win with a fold equity of 85% is 54.5 compared to your 53.5, not that significant.