Originally posted this in Beginners Questions, but got referred to here:
Hi,
Starting a couple months ago I decided to switch over from NL5 Zoom (where I was a very slight winner over 90,000 hands, essentially break-even) to trying 9-man STT (Turbo). I spent quite a bit of time doing lots of reading on SNG's, focusing especially on ICM. As well, I read Moshman's book on SNG's.
Since then I've played just over 200 $1.50 9-man Turbo's, with the attached graphs. (I'm a Statistics student, and so I completely understand that this is a tiny sample size).
The biggest issue with my game right now I think is that I struggle playing short-handed, especially heads-up.
My graphs are here:
http://imgur.com/a/Alq8z
As you can see, my yellow line is quite a bit higher than my green line -- 21 BI below expectation. Being below expectation doesn't bother me, but I guess my question is: Is there something in my game (i.e. being a weak heads up player) that could cause me to end up consistently under expectation over a significant sample size, or is this just simply a bit of rough luck to start?
Or in other terms, for a given player playing over an infinite sample size, should the yellow line = green line regardless of their style of play?
Thanks in advance for any responses.