Quote:
Originally Posted by Pokernutz1954
Can somebody explain to me how you get 37% equity in the following situation:
-9 man SNG
-4 handed
-stack distribution are as follows: you: 6150, player 2: 6150, player 3: 600, player 4: 600
-50%-30-20 payout
So, we have 6150/13500 chips so 45% of the time we get 50% automatically for first. If the other big stack gets 1st, then 83% of the time we get 2nd (6150/7350), and the other 16% the one of the two shorties gets 2nd, we get 3rd 91% of the time this happens (6150/6750). Each time a players stack is eliminated from the possiblities (since they placed already) we take their chips out of the denominator since they can't win any more. We do this same process for the times either of the shorties win, and calculate the total possibility of each event chain, multiplied by the pays out.
This obviously isn't something easy to calculate in your head, but look at this logically. We get 2nd most of the time we don't get first. We cannot win more than 50%, so it is going to be somewhere inbetween 50% and 30%. We get 20% or even 0% some of the time, but its enough to make it where have a lot of equity in this tourney.
Note if we double up through the other 6150 stack, there is no way we can possibly have more than 50% equity in the tournament. This is why we have to be such a big favorite versus other big stacks on the bubble.