Poker Stars $25+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 4 players
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CO: t8407
BTN: t2580
Hero (SB): t565
BB: t1948

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with 9 8
2 folds, Hero raises to t540 all in, BB calls t340

Flop: (t1180) 7 J 2 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t1180) J (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t1180) A (2 players - 1 is all in)

didn't look long enough actually Hes probly gonna call with a lot.

level? no he doesn't. lol. same situation last round had ace rag shoved and he folded. thought i'd try again.

Looking at the stacks, yeah, any two. It's not like you can fold and then push the button and expect to have any fold equity. At least this guy might think twice.

shoving 32o costs 60 chips more than folding.

How do you figure that?

You have 440 chips left after posting the blinds.
There are 300 chips in the pot when the hand starts, which is 2/3 of your stack.
If he calls with 100%, you will have to call 440 for a pot of 300+340=640 and you have to win 440/1080*100~40%.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.097% 46.07% 02.03% 11595799440 510641574.00 { 98o }
Hand 1: 51.903% 49.87% 02.03% 12553786212 510641574.00 { random }

So calling is +cEV and if he folds sometimes it is even better.
I don't think ICM changes much.
Another reason to call is that you will have Fold Equity and a decent shot to get ITM if you win, where if you fold you will be crippled and need quite a bit of luck.

Hope that makes sense and my math is correct.

mattiesmat, you think sb should just call??

Well he gets over 2:1, so if he knows you push super wide I guess he should call with a very wide range.

ICM program will answer this on ATC but it hugely depends on what BB is calling with.

98o is not ATC cards so yeah a shove here is unexpliotable.

Also make a notes on CO & Button as they should really be shoving pretty wide in this spot.

In this spot, I don't raise, and I don't fold. Action from there is left for the user to discover. Wow I hate it when textbooks do that so I'm not going to. I probably fold the weakest 10%, call with the middle 75%, and shove with the top 15% here. If you limp and he shoves, call. If he checks, push the flop.

Used SNGPT vs a range of any two.

We're putting up 440 to win 1180 so we need like 37% for breakeven chip EV.

I think you were actually off 100 on the pot size but close enough we're putting in 560 so the pots going to be more than 1100 intuitively.

I think limping/shoving the flop takes advantage what little FE you have. That being said, we have absolutely no fold equity if we shove pre, so I don't think it would be a mistake to fold the really bottom of our range, like 24o 83o etc.

its any two on your next hand, so it mgiht as well be here

Hmmm, maybe, but a random hand is a lot better than 32o =).

I shove ATC there, mostly due to stack sizes of myself and the BB. Winning the pot not only gives me more chips, but weakens him and puts me in a better position to finish ITM.

I might muck the absolute bottom of my range, but that's it. 98o is a snap shove.

Good point, hasn't been mentioned yet.
We should shove more into this guy than into the chipleader.

yeah i shouldve called then shoved the flop when i look at the hh. this type of play doesnt work on a reg but might work here

what he said...

98 I'm shoving, but not any 2.

shove

I like this plan alot

though I might tweak the ranges slightly

You can't look at this hand in isolation. You're getting called 100% if you push from the button and probably the same the next hand. So you'll be in the blinds with 240 behind next time round. Nice.

Here's sngpt if he's on atc: Push hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J3o+,J2s+,T6o+,T3s+,97o+,95s+,86s+ ,76s (65.3%). I like this range, but I'm adding in any two suited and some more offsuit cards. I'm probably limp shoving with the lower half of my range. If I'm not sure I just shove here because it can't be that bad, but folding sucks. You're not gonna itm most the time here so I wouldn't worry too much about perfecting your shoving range to a t.