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Old 09-24-2021, 12:10 PM   #1
Join Date: Aug 2021
Posts: 10
Any input appreciated

Got two hands I'd like to discuss. Quick background I'm solid experienced player. Not a pro but I've got an edge over most of the players I face online.

Both hands took place within 10 min of each other in a tourney where I started with 100k in chips, 15 min blinds. We're around level 7 and I expected the money bubble to hit around level 16. I needed a cash after taking a big hit on my bankroll the day before from some ugly beats so I'm a little more concerned than usual about cashing. I'm at around 275k in chips and it's all from steals and resteals. Hadn't had a big hand all tourney and couldn't flop a damn thing at that point. I've got a very good read on the entire table and I've abused it enough to almost triple my stack without winning a significant sized pot. In other words I'm playing small ball and my reads are on point for once lol

So hand 1: About 40bbs and I wake up with KK in the sm blind. Utg+2 opens for 7bb. I know a few things for sure. I know his range is aa kk qq only and I rule out kk for obvious reasons. Leaning towards aa but qq is possible. I know that no matter what he's shoving if I raise, and if I call he's shoving no matter what flops. I have 20 seconds to think about this. The raise is almost a quarter of my stack but effectively I'm playing for my whole stack. With little time to think I decide that my edge is so high, and bc I'm playing for a cash more than I normally would, and bc I think he has aces I decide to fold. He shows qq. I don't tilt in the slightest bc I felt I'd made the right decision. Am I a total idiot here or was a right to let it go and continue to steal and resteal?

Second hand a little more straight forward. Guy gets moved to my table and goes all in with junk pf about 5 times in a row. Shows rags each time but gets lucky and has a bigger stack than me. I pick up ako raise my standards 2.5bb he insta shoved. I know I've got him beat but again I don't want to play for my whole stack when I'm dominating the table without much risk. I muck and will never know what the flop would have brought. There are times where I'd snap call there of course but why give him the chance to get lucky. Again am I an idiot?

In the end I went deep into the money got all my chips in with a made hand that would have quaded me up, virtually guaranteeing the final table and a big score. Got called by a 5 high flush draw that hit (how he made it that far is beyond me lol) so my big payday didn't happen. In retrospect I still feel good about both lay downs but I'd love to hear some feedback. Thanks for taking the time to read this!
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Old 09-24-2021, 04:19 PM   #2
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: East Tennessee
Posts: 428
Re: Any input appreciated

Originally Posted by idhitthattoo View Post
background I'm solid experienced player. Not a pro but I've got an edge over most of the players I face online.
This statement does not jive with the rest of the post. From the way you are talking about these hands it is pretty clear that you do not have an edge over the online field, unless you are on a very soft club on an app. Major online sites are tough, you have to really know what you are doing. Humility is the starting point of learning.

A good player will not feel the need to cash this tourney because of a recent downswing. A good player will not pass up massively +EV spots to not risk losing, because a good player understands that their edge comes from taking these spots in the first place.

As for the hands both of them are really bad folds. You are not even halfway to the money at this point, cashing shouldn't be on your mind yet, collecting the most chips possible is your goal.

You basically have to see his hand to justify folding KK to a single raise, no matter how big. What read did you have that this was QQ+ only, not even including JJ or AK. My read on a player who makes this kind of raise from ep, esp a rec, is that is a strong but vulnerable hand and they want to just take it down or really punish a chaser. Pretty much exactly in the TT-QQ,AK range.

The AK spot is EXACTLY what you want to happen. A chance to double up with a huge equity edge vs a certified maniac and get a huge stack so when the money bubble approaches you are in a spot to really abuse it.

Not to get too results oriented but maybe if you had taken those huge +EV spots and had big doubles then your bust hand may have just been a small setback on your road to the FT. Also maybe you bust with KK v QQ, but thats the game.

Last edited by ledn; 09-24-2021 at 04:28 PM.
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Old 09-24-2021, 07:04 PM   #3
Join Date: Aug 2021
Posts: 10
Re: Any input appreciated

Appreciate your analysis thanks for taking the time to write back. In hindsight ur right about the ak no doubt I won't even try to argue otherwise. As for the kk yes it's a soft site, very soft, which unfortunately is the only option available to me right now. Also to be completely honest I took a very long break from poker and have only been back to the grind for four months. I'm still working to add the skills needed to be successful in today's meta as compared to what it was before my hiatus. Much has changed and I'm trying to soak up all the info I can get.

As for the read I forgot to mention I've played with this guy many many times and have tons of notes on him including a similar situation against him where I read aces but shoved my kk anyways and unfortunately my read was right. Based off that experience I felt extremely confident that qq was the bottom of his range. This guy's very consistent with how he sizes up his opening raises. Almost like he has a chart in his head that he follows. Sure he could have remembered that hand from a month ago and adjusted accordingly but that would be a level of sophistication beyond anything he's shown me. I agree with you completely that in most situations a rec player raising that amount would signal a vulnerable hand, small to middle pairs in my experience being most likely, but this guy wouldn't play them that way. Still I realize I overthought it and made a mistake. The lack of time to act didn't help either (lost my time bank earlier bc of an internet outage). Thank you for all the advice I'm not the type of person that thinks they know everything already and I'm not too proud to ignore constructive criticism. I'll take your words to heart and keep working to improve my game. You've already helped me just by replying. Thanks again take care.
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Old 09-24-2021, 07:18 PM   #4
Join Date: Aug 2021
Posts: 10
Re: Any input appreciated

Also I should have chosen my words more carefully earlier. I didn't mean to imply I think I have an edge over most online players. I only meant I believe I have an edge over the regulars on my site at the limits I play. My apologies if it came off as being full of myself. Wasn't my intention at all.
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Old 09-24-2021, 10:42 PM   #5
Ash phonetically
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,851
Re: Any input appreciated

KK is a fistpump jam.
AK is a fistpump call.

A fundamental aspect of long-run success in tournaments is bankroll management. Avoid putting yourself in situations where a min-cash is so important to your bankroll that you are unable to play optimally. Play smaller buy-in tournaments to alleviate the financial stress of cashing.

Use ICM to dictate whether cashing is an important factor to consider in your decisions, not subjective analysis of min-cash importance.

Don't overvalue reads based on limited sample sizes. Reads should influence your decisions towards small deviations from optimal strategy, if at all.

Last edited by Asjbaaaf; 09-24-2021 at 10:55 PM.
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Old 09-24-2021, 11:30 PM   #6
Join Date: Aug 2021
Posts: 10
Re: Any input appreciated

Thanks for the advice. Really appreciate you taking the time. Realizing now how much I let a couple bad beats get into my head. Won't make that mistake again. I def need to press advantages more and stop worrying about the results so much. I know all of this already but knowing and doing aren't the same thing. Needed a swift kick in the ass and I got it here. Thanks again take care.
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