Hero has AKs with 25BBs

We are 4 away from the money in a WSOP 1k High Roller online buy in

UTG min raises - he's got a little over 40BBs

The Villain was doing some tricky stuff earlier but anytime the money got in he had a decent hand.

Anyone fold here? Or just call and see a flop? Or do we always shove?

As far as the ICM implications...

4 away out of how many total / paid?

24 left, 20 paid is very different than 204 left, 200 paid.

And where your stack places you in the tournament matters too.

Without knowing those details... I think shove is probably the right play given your particular hand and the ICM concerns. Winning pots with fold equity is a big part of ICM play, your hand is really good, and UTG is probably going to have to call rather tightly for the same ICM reasons.

Yes, I should have mentioned.. 16 left, 12 get paid.

I was towards the bottom, but still had a very playable stack. People generally play very nitty/careful in these larger buy in, smaller fields. So no crazy big stacks. Most had anywhere between 30-50 bigs.

16 left with 12 paid is similar to 133 left 100 paid, so you are not as close to the money as it seems.


I am just playing this normally. 3betting to 5bb and calling it off vs a jam. Jamming is fine but I think you benefit more by giving him the option to 4bet jam dominated hands. 25bb is a lot to 3bet jam, especially IP.

Our position matters a lot.

Though with AKs and position I typically call here. I would rather see the flop in position than risk it all up against hands like TT-QQ. And of course he can also have KK+ though not that often.

If I am SB or BB then it matters if we are HU or there are other callers. I tend to just call with AKs/AQs against tight UTG openers with two or more callers. HU I vary it but here I might just shove at least from the SB. In this spot I think I call from BB. I think if an A or K hits on the flop UTG guy will cbet and we can c/r jam, especially if there is a flush draw and/or straight draw out there.

With just one caller and we are in the blinds I tend to jam because our range will seem potentially wide and I think I would rather be HU than up against 2.

Still I have no issue with 3-bet jamming with AKs and 25 blinds if we think UTG is not especially tight (and you note that he was tricky earlier)

The one interesting advantage with AK is that after calling sometimes we will get a squeeze jam from a blind and the UTG may fold. In that case its a call and likely we are getting good pot odds.

Sorry my computer kind of whiffed and I thought my post was lost...

I am more in favor of a 25 bb 3-bet jam than making it 5bb or even 6bb. I think it gives us a much wider range to just call. We could be doing that with a lot of PP. The other thing is that if we are SB or BB 5 bb is ridiculously small. My standard 3-bet size would be 9bb with this effective stack size and that is over 33% effective stack so I'd always just jam from a blind if I am raising.

Is there any reason that 3b (not jam) isn't an option?

Yes.. I forgot to mention, we were either in MP or Hijack. Good analysis Mr Rick.

So my thinking here is we are def not 3b folding here, and I want to avoid Villain just calling our 3b. Because I think then we are forced to play our hand face up. We would end up having a small SPR which would leave us in an awkward position.

In hindsight it was stupid to put Fold as an option in the poll since we're never folding to a min raise. It's really either call or shove for me in this spot.

Why is your hand face up when you 3bet small and get called?

Because with an inflated pot and a small stack I don’t like c-betting unless I flop an A or K. The only type of deception that I’m doing here is maybe slow playing on a dry board when I do connect. But being so close to the bubble I think it’s better to play it straightforward.

The stacks seem a bit awkward to 3-bet a non-shove amount.
For a min raise and the fact that there are most probably antes, I'd be tempted to just call here.

Yes, I think a small 3bet would work well for a more polarized range. Not so much for AK in this spot.

Obv we arent 3bet/folding AKs but we should have a 3bet/fold range ip.

Below is a chipEV sim for how to play HJ vs a utg open 25bb (You can look at preflop chip EV solutions for free btw). There is a small amount of jamming here but its interesting to look at the EV difference between options to understand why there are jams.

AKo, JJ, TT have the same EV between jamming and 3betting small and KQs has the same EV between jamming and calling. So why does the solver have a jamming range at all? Its because jam is the highest EV play with QJs and the solver needs hands to balance out that range so it takes hands where jamming is equal in EV to other actions and puts them in a jamming range. But basically the jamming range is built around QJs. Are you jamming QJs here for 25bb?

I am fairly certain that if you paid for the premium ICM preflop solution here, you would see no jams, fewer calls, and more small 3bets.

AKs is going to be able to very profitably cbet most boards for a small size vs an utg calling range. Yes sometimes you get jammed on and fold, which sucks. But a lot of the time you get a fold and profited an extra 4bb compared to jamming pre and taking it down. And on Ahi boards you have to chance to be against AQ, AJ hands and get a lot of chips, if not a full double.

Plus 3betting small gives you the option to fold if there is enough action behind you. Like a btn jam and followed by a another jam from the blinds or utg.

Great point!

But 3betting small will sometimes lead you down a path where villain could potentially bluff you off your hand when you don't connect and AK is the best hand.

I think there's merit's and arguments to be made for all options. Except folding.

But this isn't taking ICM into account, correct?

I think jam, its the old scenario of getting to see 5 cards not 3 and you have more FE which is important at this stage.

It suck when you miss the flop with your stack size.