4.5 hours into a $15 PKO tournament. Looking for advise on all streets. Was the turn check bad + the river bet, or just the river bet? Can i possibly fold to the river 3 bet?

30000/60000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 30.44 BB
SB: 16.77 BB
BB: 4.31 BB
Hero (UTG): 32.26 BB
UTG+1: 21.21 BB
MP: 29.13 BB
MP+1: 6.61 BB
CO: 49.8 BB

8 players post ante of 0.15 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.7 BB) Hero has J A

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 2.5 BB, fold, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (9.7 BB, 3 players) 2 T J
SB checks, Hero bets 3.2 BB, CO raises to 7.4 BB, fold, Hero calls 4.2 BB

Turn: (24.5 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (24.5 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero bets 6.13 BB, CO raises to 15.75 BB, Hero calls 9.63 BB

Hero shows J A (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 61%, Flop 93%, Turn 73%)
CO shows 6 3 (Flush, Eight High)
(Pre 39%, Flop 7%, Turn 27%)
CO wins 56.01 BB

I don't mind the turn check as putting the villain on 6 high here with no draw is not something pretty much anyone would do. These things happen in low stakes mtt and the answer really is to just play more of them.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

Leading the turn would be a strange play with any hand. Neither range improves on the 5 so it's typical to check to the previous aggressor. Your hands that would like to lead here should instead re-raise the flop (all-in at this SPR).

BTW, it is a river 2-bet. A bet is the first bet, a raise of a bet is the second bet (2-bet), a raise of the first raise is the third bet (3-bet). Preflop you count the blind action as the first bet so the first raise is a 2-bet and the second raise is a 3-bet.

Thanks! Sounds like turn check makes sense. Two more questions

1. Is this ever a 4 bet spot preflop?
2. Leading out on the river was a bad play, right? I should of checked for pot control?

Generally, what is the biggest mistake made on this hand?

You raised pre and he called so you don't have the ability to 4b here as the villian closes the action.

The river play is tough because you have to ask yourself what's he leading out with on the flop?

Q9 gets there but the options

KQ
QJ
KJ

Other jacks in general. There is also a terribly played ak or aq. Because you raised the flop bet you should be able to discount sets.

Basically out of position if you are check calling a jam I don't mind better if you give the villian air here I like checking because you will induce bluffs.

At the end of the day don't try to place logic where none is exists. This villian got in a lot of chips with 6 high hoping for runner runner and hit a miracle. These hands are just bad beats and probably not great areas of opportunity for your game.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

Sorry I meant is this a spot where I can 3 bet on the flop. I think i'm using that correctly i.e raise his re-raise

I hear you! For my own sanity I just need to analyze this one as it was the biggest pot of the tourney and the one that blocked me from making the FT. I *think* if I was in this spot again I would do everything the same except for not leading the river and check calling up to 50-75% pot. Thoughts?

I don't hate your flop raise. You flopped tptk I think you need to go with it period.

As for the river if you check you are inducing a bluff. You need to call any bet.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

Villain didn't lead flop and hero didn't raise flop. You have it backwards.

Yes.

His raise doesn't make much sense; his nutted hands should flat and hope the SB comes along or at least let you continue betting into him. Maybe JT does this but I'd expect a call for the same reasons. KQ is the most likely hand I'd be worried about here, but there isn't really a good way to protect yourself if he does have that. I've lost more money trying to get cute or pot control in spots like this (OOP without much clarity on villain's range) than I have just getting my good hands in and letting villain worry about what to do.

Thank you that makes sense. What kind of sizing do you think makes sense? Do you play this as a 50/50 check vs 3bet or do you always 3bet?

I wouldn't always. (Partly because I don't play these spots as fast as I think I should a lot of the time, but let's set aside my own leaks for now.) Whether I reraised here would depend on a lot of factors, like where we are in the tournament, but especially what I think of the villain in this hand. Did you have much chance to play with him before and notice him making plays like this?

I would also be more inclined to re-raise in a PKO, based in the idea that a covering stack might be pushing the action with a hand worse than mine in hopes of winning my bounty. I think the stack depth is a little tricky, because on the one hand you are rarely getting it in vs. a worse hand if you 3-bet here (sometimes villain will be overplaying QJ/KJ, but not often), but on the other hand the pot is now so large-- if you call the flop raise you have 1 SPR remaining-- that the value of picking it up without letting a bad card roll off is valuable too. (I wouldn't necessarily be comfortable getting over 30BB in on TPTK, but multiway and with the SPR as it is going to the flop, I do feel better about it here.)

I probably just jam if I 3-bet it here, anything else would look extremely weird and be committing anyway. (Maybe you could min-3-bet and call it off, but I'm not sure that's much of an improvement. Someone else might know something I don't, though.)

Thanks Nath! Just seeing this now. That all makes sense and is super helpful
Especially around the sizing.
.. It was late in tourney. Probably 34 players left at this point. Villian just joined my table. I maybe had 5 hands with him up until this point and none of them where interesting. JT was what I was most worried about to be honest. I feel like AA-QQ is 3 betting preflop me here. With no read on villain itÂ’s tough.