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AA puke spots on turn and river, need help AA puke spots on turn and river, need help

10-11-2008 , 09:34 PM
This hand goes to absolute hell on turn and river, thoughts on what I should do?

Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP1: t3580
MP2: t1400
CO: t1450
BTN: t1460
SB: t1150
Hero (BB): t1500
UTG: t1380
UTG+1: t1480
UTG+2: t1480

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with A A
5 folds, CO calls t20, BTN calls t20, 1 fold, Hero raises to t100, CO calls t80, BTN calls t80

Flop: (t310) 7 J 8 (3 players)
Hero bets t160, CO folds, BTN calls t160

Turn: (t630) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (t630) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
AA puke spots on turn and river, need help Quote
10-11-2008 , 09:46 PM
That is some pretty sick cards to come out. I think i would have played it much the same. (maybe like 200-220 on flop) but thats nit picking. I'm interested as to what others may say.
AA puke spots on turn and river, need help Quote
10-11-2008 , 11:17 PM
I would either bet/fold turn, or block bet/value bet river.
AA puke spots on turn and river, need help Quote
10-11-2008 , 11:24 PM
more on flop...250ish with this spot...

tur check is fine...I think B/F the river>C/C
AA puke spots on turn and river, need help Quote
10-12-2008 , 12:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssnyc
I think B/F the river>C/C
why bet and set him up for a perfect bluff? we have no idea if he hit his J on turn or made his straight on river. We have no idea where we are at so why bet here?
AA puke spots on turn and river, need help Quote
10-12-2008 , 01:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RT_437
why bet and set him up for a perfect bluff? we have no idea if he hit his J on turn or made his straight on river. We have no idea where we are at so why bet here?
I think a block-type bet is best here, particularly because I think you'll be paid off by worse hands sometimes.

As for the logic behind the bet, you bet to prevent facing a potentially -EV decision (or simply a less +EV decision) on the river. In general, players are more likely to bet as a bluff than they are to bluff raise. More specifically, this means that even weak players tend to bet as a bluff at a rate much closer to the optimal rate than the they do bluff raise. Thus, checking tends to cost you more money because villains play more correctly in this spot than they do when reacting to a bet, which is to say that they bluff at a more appropriate rate. By betting and always folding to a raise, you put your opponent in a spot where they will play less optimally, which means you make a +EV spot more +EV, which means more money for you in the long run. This can, at times, be true even if you never win if villain calls your bet.

I'm not sure I've done the best job explaining it, so if this makes little to no sense, read Sklansky's section on bluffing in Theory of Poker, which does a considerably better job (well, you should really do this regardless).
AA puke spots on turn and river, need help Quote
10-12-2008 , 01:31 AM
I like a bigger flop bet too. As played, after you both checked the turn, I like betting half pot on the river. He can def think you hit trips on the turn after your flop Cbet and were trying to trap, also he can really only raise you on the river with a J or the straight, in which case you can lay this one down and feel like it was a good play.
AA puke spots on turn and river, need help Quote

      
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