We have a 30k starting stack and villain has us covered by a little bit
Reads on villain: Guy from northern Europe. He called a 3bet btn v bb with KQo. Called flop and turn cbets and then bombed river when checked to QT876.
Villain opens 500 in LJ, HJ flats, folds to Hero in bb who has black Aces and 3bets to 2500. (Probably could have gone even bigger pre tbh). Both call.
Flop is JJ8r and the pot is 7700. I check and it checks thru.
Turn is 7 and brings a 2nd diamond on the board. I bet 2500, villain calls and HJ folds.
River is 9. Pot is 12700. I check and villain bets 10k. Hero ???
I think you played it near perfectly -- maybe a bigger bet on turn. River is fold for me, athough it's close. V should have a lot of missed draws, but also a lot of hands that got there. But I don't think the pop is bluffing that big on the river. Also, this early and this deep, I don't want to take the high variance play in a $2400 buy in.
Very easy river fold. Hmm maybe go a tad bigger pre to like 3k but I’m fine with 2.5k. Hand seems well played in my mind. I like going 1/3rd pot on turn. Hands you crush are going to fold no matter what.
I think I go a little bigger (I'm thinking maybe a tad over 1/2 pot) on the turn because we want to price out the many draws in Vs ranges here. But I certainly don't think the 1/3 pot turn bet is bad.
I haven's seen the PIO in this situation, but instinct tells me to check flop as our OOP 3! range should have a lot less Js than either V.
But it also has lots more big pairs and theirs has lots more medium pairs and medium pairs will call this flop.
I would bet it against any opp that I didn't think would realize they should have more Js and also be capable of exploiting that, which is lots of them.
But it also has lots more big pairs and theirs has lots more medium pairs and medium pairs will call this flop.
I would bet it against any opp that I didn't think would realize they should have more Js and also be capable of exploiting that, which is lots of them.
Certainly true. But as deep as we are (and against random Vs in a $2400 buy in WPT event), I think we need to respect the fact that the Vs have the nut advantage. Interested as to what's GTO here -- especially OOP this deep against two Vs.
I paid it off and got shown 99, I couldn't get past what I saw him do earlier on the 4 straight board with decent sd value and thought he was possibly over bluffing this board. I tend to agree with notion the population is underbluffing in these spots though.
I am also pretty much at the top of my range other than one JJ combo. So from a game theory perspective, I expect AA to call some % of the time, particularly unblocking fds. I leave Vegas in the morning and will run it on PIO when I get back home.
Flop check seemed standard to me on this flop oop 3ways. I dont really have a J often and my hand doesn't need protecting. I would cbet TT and QQ that dont want to give free overcards.
