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A2s in BB A2s in BB

01-08-2024 , 08:23 PM
27 left, 10 paid.
1k/2.5k/2.5k
Folds to button, he calls from a stack of c50k
SB makes it 7.5 from c85k
I call with Ah2h I have c 90k
Button folds
Pot 20k

Flop AK9 xxh
SB leads for 10k
I call
Turn 5x
SB leads again for 20k
I call? Views?

River 9
SB jams…..
What now?
A2s in BB Quote
01-08-2024 , 10:00 PM
Gross. I don't love it but we chop with AQ/AJ/AT so I don't think we can fold. The 9 is a great river for you, I probably fold most other rivers. Villain's tendencies are important as well, if he is tight I would strongly consider folding on the turn. If he is aggressive you probably have to call down with top pair.

I'm not sure what you mean by "x" - was there a flush on board or no?
A2s in BB Quote
01-10-2024 , 04:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LifeNitFL
Gross. I don't love it but we chop with AQ/AJ/AT so I don't think we can fold. The 9 is a great river for you, I probably fold most other rivers. Villain's tendencies are important as well, if he is tight I would strongly consider folding on the turn. If he is aggressive you probably have to call down with top pair.

I'm not sure what you mean by "x" - was there a flush on board or no?
No flush possibilities.
Villain is ‘creative’ and aggressive, good at maximising his rewards when he has a hand. Doesn’t show bluffs because “if you have to show your bluffs you’re not bluffing enough”.

Calling in the hope of a chop always feels bad to me. No matter how likely that chop may be.
A2s in BB Quote
01-10-2024 , 09:17 AM
Calling to chop probably feels bad, but if you don't, then he gets chips that are rightfully yours.

I think the 9 river is probably a bad card to bluff, so I'd not consider him to do that at a high frequency. Even so, it seems unlikely he'd two-barrel a 9 on this board. That means the hands that beat you are relatively limited-- AK/A9/K9/KK/99/55. You could have a 9, but given his preflop raise and how the A and K fit it well, you might not call with just a 9 on the turn. But he knows you don't have AK/KK and probably not 99 since you didn't 3-bet pre, so that gives him incentive to bluff or push you off a chop.

It's an 80k pot and you have 52.5k left. Even if you're chopping, that means you're risking 52.5k to win 40k, which is never fun, but if he's trying to push you off a chop with his Ax hands, that's a big enough part of his range to justify the call. You need to chop 56.8% of the time here to break even, maybe round that up for ICM effects-- but a good aggressive player will have those Ax hands in his range often enough to call. (Certainly, at least, with A5, by way of blocking 55.) There are a lot more hands you chop with than hands that beat you. And that's if he's never turning, say, K5 into a bluff with the full house blockers. If he's bluffing at all here, you win a big pot those times.

That's my analysis, anyway.
A2s in BB Quote
01-11-2024 , 12:30 AM
I would add to the above that aggressive opponents know less aggressive players hate calling to chop and will exploit that. I think double paired boards and the like are overbluffed from what I've seen (although that might be true more in cash).

Given the opponent's tendencies, I would call.
A2s in BB Quote

      
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