99 UTG on bubble of satellite 5-handed - Page 2 - MTT Poker Strategy

I would probably call with KK+. Not sure what is correct. However, calling light with the big stack because you have the chips would be really bad. Many actual players though might be calling looser with the big stack.

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04-14-2024 , 05:45 PM

#27

jjjou812

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,702

Quote:

Originally Posted by deuceblocker

He can call easily, but the best play would be to pretty much fold everything. Not sure how that is how most people would play.

I disagree. The best play is to knock out the short stack and win the satellite, especially if you wake up with AA.

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04-14-2024 , 06:01 PM

#28

Brussels Sprout

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,783

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2pairsof2s

The Button should fold everything here, even AA. The only way he can lose at this point is if he doubles up a short stack and loses a wad of chips. He has already won and should fold 100%.

The BB and SB should probably fold 100% here too. They will be tempted to call it off with big pairs or suited AK maybe (and I would be tempted too) but what they should do is step away and let you and CO fight it out.
.

I think this is backwards. BB & SB have more reason to fold 100% of their range than BTN does.

If they face a jam from the 9bb stack the downside of calling and losing is disproportionately worse (suddenly being back in the mix for bubbling) than winning (probably improving their chance of cashing from 90% -> 95%).

In contrast BTN can call a shove from the 9bb stack, lose, and still be the biggest stack at the table, by a fair distance and an overwhelming favourite to cash.

Ultimately someone has to call an all-in to end the satellite. If it's not going to be BTN in that scenario (with AA) then I don't know who's it's going to be.

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04-14-2024 , 06:35 PM

#29

deuceblocker

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,409

99 is not the greatest hand in that it is 20% against a lot of the calling range. However, it seems like a fine steal situation. You have 9xBB in HJ with no action in front. If you fold, then you go through the blinds and will be a lot shorter. If you fold, you need to shove close to ATC if it is passed to you the next round. There are advantages to shoving from later position with a much weaker hand.

Usually, the short stack who bubbles is not going to be the one who steals too much, but the one who gets blinded down. Maybe hero was waiting too much for a premium hand like this and missed opportunities to steal in later position.

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04-14-2024 , 08:21 PM

#30

jjjou812

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,702

Come on, you know he shoved, got called by two overs and lost the flip.

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04-15-2024 , 09:44 PM

#31

deuceblocker

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,409

The ICM not considering future action is incorrect. You need to steal or be blinded out. You will be in a difficult situation going through the blinds and the levels go up and you could have 5xBB in 3 hands. If the other short stack steals, you will be in bad shape. They aren't going to have a hand to call with that often, and you win often. Doubling up is huge.

Satellites are quite interesting, because the strategy is very different from cash tournaments.

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04-15-2024 , 10:42 PM

#32

jjjou812

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,702

Quote:

Originally Posted by deuceblocker

You either double up, get knocked out or pick up 2.5 bbs.

Maybe smeags will give us the results.

Last edited by jjjou812; 04-15-2024 at 10:48 PM.

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04-16-2024 , 12:00 AM

#33

deuceblocker

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,409

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjjou812

You either double up, get knocked out or pick up 2.5 bbs.

Maybe smeags will give us the results.

I am sure he busted. However, stealing and doubling up are both really big here, and you can afford to wait for a better spot.

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04-16-2024 , 02:16 AM

#34

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,712

The OP says "Hero shoved and busted this hand."

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04-16-2024 , 09:18 AM

#35

jjjou812

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,702

Yeah, I am curious about the detail.

Btw, the last live satellite I played I busted with 99 with the second shortest stack. Utg, paying 8, just combined to 9 handed, blinds would double next hand and we played with a BB ante. I shove, around 9bbs, short stack from utg +2 calls all in, bb with around 50 calls. Aj and kq. Both hit and I lose main and side pots. BB was 3-4 in chips. He was a cash player that I was friendly with who I thought might fold it heads up but his logic was he could take out either short stack and end the tournament.

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04-17-2024 , 04:38 PM

#36

jjjou812

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,702

I don’t think we are getting an update. Swissnit bumped a 2022 post and OP hasn’t been active since July of 2022.

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04-19-2024 , 03:44 PM

#37

herbalerv

adept

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 780

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwedishNit

I do believe this is a shove, unless perhaps any of BTN, SB or BB is a clueless maniac.

The difference between our and CO:s stacks aren't big enough to justify a nit fold here. And if he's somewhat competent he also should understand this may be the best position for him to shove if Hero folds. This is because both blinds - again unless they are clueless - has the least incentive of all players to call an AI. That's because their risk of bubbling is small if they just sit tight (at least ATM), but if they do call and loose they will be in a worse situation.

And BTN should at least consider the risk of an overcall from either of the blinds should he call the shove.

I guess we would prefer two high cards like AJs because of the blocking effect. But 99 is good enough here.

This situation in fact is quite similar to the 18-mans on PS (4 places paid). OK, in them we're also playing for higher prices, which affect ICM. But in a spot like this the main concern when we're one of the two smaller stacks is surviving the bubble. To do that we have to be careful, but don't to nitty/passive, or else we will often find us passed by the smallest stack when they either push 2 times without getting a call, or double up.

A rule of thumb even in satellites should be: The fewer players on the bubble - the more risks we have to take, everything else equal.

This was a 2 year old bump to post a lot of misunderstanding and erroneous analysis, what?!

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