Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812
As utg, hero has to get through every player so it's a clear fold for me. Hero is also in an advantageous spot over the other short stack as he has position on him in the bb if everyone folds and the short stacks battle in the blinds.
I am assuming hero busted because otherwise he won't be questioning the play if he won the seat.
At the end of the day this spot boils down to how much we think the other players will deviate from correct calling ranges. I still believe that when we consider player dynamics we should assume it's mostly only BTN who will call to light here.
If everyone plays correctly Heros range (HRC) is 38,4%: 22+, A2s+, A2o+, K2s+, K9o+, K8o: K7o-K5o, K4o, Q2s+, QTo+, J7s+, JTo, T8s+. The other players calling ranges:
CO: 99+, AJs+, AQo+
BTN: TT+, AQs+, AKo
SB: TT+, AKs, AKo
BB: 99+, AQs+, AQo+
So 99 is at least close to his upper range and definately a shove. But I made a simulation where everyone calls little bit to loose, and BB more than a little (but still not a maniac):
CO: 88+, ATs+, AQo+
BTN: 77+, A8s+, AJo+, KTs+, QJs
SB: 99+, AJs+, AQo+
BB: 88+, AJs+, AJo+, KQs
Now Heros range shrinks to only 5%: TT+, AJs+, AQo+ So if we think something like this ranges is more close to reality those who argue it's a fold are correct!
Still: From my recent experience in playing 5-man bubbles in the Pokerstars 18 man SnG:s I would say that the idea you will be relatively safe in spots like this waiting out the more shortstacked player here will often disappoint the player who due to other players actions and/or his own cards is forced to do so