Quote:
Originally Posted by 2pairsof2s
The Button should fold everything here, even AA. The only way he can lose at this point is if he doubles up a short stack and loses a wad of chips. He has already won and should fold 100%.
The BB and SB should probably fold 100% here too. They will be tempted to call it off with big pairs or suited AK maybe (and I would be tempted too) but what they should do is step away and let you and CO fight it out.
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I think this is backwards. BB & SB have more reason to fold 100% of their range than BTN does.
If they face a jam from the 9bb stack the downside of calling and losing is disproportionately worse (suddenly being back in the mix for bubbling) than winning (probably improving their chance of cashing from 90% -> 95%).
In contrast BTN can call a shove from the 9bb stack, lose, and still be the biggest stack at the table, by a fair distance and an overwhelming favourite to cash.
Ultimately someone has to call an all-in to end the satellite. If it's not going to be BTN in that scenario (with AA) then I don't know who's it's going to be.