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8+R rivered trips in trouble?

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09-13-2009 , 11:37 AM

ooriiilly

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 233

Poker Stars $8.00+$0.80 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t7114 M = 23.71
Hero (BB): t14775 M = 49.25
UTG: t555 M = 1.85
UTG+1: t5505 M = 18.35
UTG+2: t5600 M = 18.67
MP1: t2074 M = 6.91
MP2: t6328 M = 21.09
CO: t14990 M = 49.97
BTN: t7384 M = 24.61

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BB with K

2 folds, UTG+2 calls t200, 5 folds, Hero checks

Flop: (t500) 8

(2 players)
Hero bets t295, UTG+2 calls t295

Turn: (t1090) 2

(2 players)
Hero bets t715, UTG+2 calls t715

River: (t2520) T

(2 players)
Hero bets t1300, UTG+2 raises to t4390 all in, Hero ?

Can we fold here? It sure looks like an obv boat... What do you think?

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09-13-2009 , 11:44 AM

PokerBreed

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,689

In this 8r, the majority of villains will play 8x, 99, AA-JJ and smaller 10xs the exact same way.
Full houses make up such a small portion of their range that I think folding here would be a big mistake.

Edit: I'm aware it's unlikely they have AA-JJ in their range since they limped in ep but you never know, I've seen it enough times in this tournament to not discount it from their range.

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09-13-2009 , 11:50 AM

ooriiilly

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 233

Yeah, but the river shove, do u think they do it with worse than trips?

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09-13-2009 , 01:23 PM

PokerBreed

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,689

They definitely do shove worse then Tx on that river. I'd say about 95% of the time you would win that hand and about 80% of the time you're already ahead on the flop.

Of course that being said I'm assuming you lost the hand and that's why you're posting it. There are more combinations of hands that you beat then 88/44/22 and A10 and random 2 pairs that river a boat.

Nice call and don't beat yourself up about it.

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09-14-2009 , 05:18 AM

furo

deviation of equilibrium

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 29,639

i expect a set/overpair/wired two pair to raise the flop or turn, so i think he has nothing on the turn we have to be afraid of in general.
river can be bet/call or c/raise. depends on the villain if he is aggressive enough to bluff or if he is going for small value with a hand like A8

bet/call in a vacuum for me

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