Quote:
Originally Posted by skater3598
he doesn't have to be inducing from air or getting value from worse (obviously very rarely accomplishing that) to lead 1 pair or pair + gutter OTF. Tx is definitely his most likely holding OTF, imo, and once you call the turn he probably assumes you have Tx very often.
i think it's an easy fold on the river given that 6x and Jx got there, which are definitely large parts of his range. and it looks like you have at least an overpair, but more likely (since he has to expect you to raise an overpair OTF) trips or a straight.
wtf are blades?
in order for this to be a call on the river he has to take this line with pure air too often... everything else got there except a bare flushdraw.
I almost disagree with all of this post
Ok for starters I don't agree that Tx is 'definitely' his most likely holding on the flop. I don't think GOGGLES' is going to come in and give a definitive answer on his donk leading range on this flop :P but I'd guess it's more likely to be draws or air (maybe sets/top two that lead out because hero will be checking flop so often?). Secondly, I don't see just because we call the turn he has to assume we have Tx very often. I can't speak for OP but I'd imagine there's not a ton of Tx in his preflop range compared to other hands that would peel flop and turn like this, and even then KT and AT would probably just raise and get it in on that turn card because almost half the deck kills your action or gives you a hard decision on the river.
I find it bizarre that you think 6x is a large part of his range, not sure if you were just grouping it with Jx but I think GOGGLES has a 6 here close to never. A jack could certainly be in GOGGLES' range, but I think I would call. The board ran out pretty much perfect for him to continue barreling, it's very unlikely for us to have a boat or strong trips because of our flop and turn play, I think he'd bet bigger with a boat, and he probably thinks the only overpair that can call is JJ.