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 18man bubble QKo  18man bubble QKo

09-06-2011 , 11:40 PM
BB is fish and calls a lot in the BB, but i thought he may fold now on bubble.

BB stats: 32/14 #60 hands
BB fold vs steal 25% (1/4),
3bet 10% (21)
agg factor 2.5,
steal: 21%

The only hands i thought that he could have that beat me is QT or set of 5's. But he can have a lot of hands here, so would you push, call or fold on flop ??



[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $6.45 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #10507072

BB: 7,840 (26.1 bb)
MP: 2,875 (9.6 bb)
Hero (CO): 7,715 (25.7 bb)
BTN: 3,230 (10.8 bb)
SB: 5,340 (17.8 bb)

Preflop: (125) Hero is CO with Q K
MP folds, Hero raises to 700, 2 folds, BB calls 400

Flop: (1,675) Q 5 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 900, BB raises to 1,800
Hero ???


thank you
 18man bubble QKo Quote
09-06-2011 , 11:57 PM
Snapfold in a vacuum. To go any further you need at least a known heavy spewtard across the table (and 32/14 definitely does not cut it readless), and also you probably need to have a very very stealy and spewy image yourself, like you've been stealing relentlessly in the past 2 or 3 orbits. No one takes lines asking for a large stack trade on the bubble lightly. I understand his 3bet value makes you want to exclude AQ and TT from his range but people can get cautious on the bubble when effective stacksizes are very uncomfortable like here.

Also I'd probably bet bigger because there are a lot of stuff that will give you value, worse Qs, Tx + gutshots, straight draws and whatnot. Just that they won't checkraise your ass.
 18man bubble QKo Quote
09-07-2011 , 12:05 AM
AQ or QT is just too rare for a shove not to be profitable imo. But as it's a min-raise and a very possible steal I'd just flat.
 18man bubble QKo Quote
09-07-2011 , 08:38 AM
Calling is not an option leaning towards a fold but villain dependent i shove here vs. the aggressive guys.
 18man bubble QKo Quote
09-07-2011 , 06:02 PM
Why is calling not an option? There's no flush draw, only a few bad turns, and we let villain know what up if we raz

I flat and do stuff on the turn! I agree with CJs thoughts to some extent fwiw
 18man bubble QKo Quote
09-08-2011 , 01:43 AM
pfft, I'm shipping.
 18man bubble QKo Quote
09-08-2011 , 08:11 AM
Villain's range is now mainly polarized between good hands (including some weaker top pairs) and random bluff. Raising the flop achieves nothing good for us, we don't get called often by the hands we beat.
So I'd call the raise and bet turn small, because we gain value from weaker top pairs (they will probably call our bet but would have folded to a jam on the flop) and we avoid mucking the best hand sometimes when he decides he wants to keep bluffing on the turn.

Folding to the minraise is an option too, I guess I would fold vs the most passive opponents. This one is not really a LAG, though.
 18man bubble QKo Quote

      
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