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67s facing multiway action 67s facing multiway action

03-28-2024 , 06:14 PM
May as well consider this an STT, pub game that started with 12, down to 8 and final table, paying 3 in 3-2-1 ratio, 96k in play and we start with 18k UTG, blinds 400/800. We raise 67s to 2k (have loose but not ridiculous image), UTG+2 (generally tighter and competent) jams 7.4k, folded round to BB (also generally tight and competent, neither villain is in any way a nit) who calls all-in for coincidentally the exact same amount, so it's 5.4k to call on us, just want a quick checkup as to whether there is too much in there to even consider folding
67s facing multiway action Quote
03-28-2024 , 07:39 PM
Your raise is too large at your stack depth. I would open the minimum here. (I would also fold 76s UTG/8 at this depth almost all of the time.)

By my calculations it's 5.4k to play for 18k, which is about 3.3:1. You're getting the right price if they both have overcards (especially if they share them), but the overcall seems to me like you'll be facing an overpair a fair bit of the time, which you don't have the odds against. I guess it comes down to how tight you think their ranges are and if you want to gamble.

But this is part of why this is a fold in the first place. Lower suited connectors don't hit often enough to be worth it at this depth, and you have no blockers, increasing the chances you're going to get action you don't want. (And you didn't mention the stack depths at your table, but obviously there are some players short enough to be willing to reshove even against an UTG open.) At this depth being able to make a strong top pair (or having a pair) is the most important consideration for your raising range.
67s facing multiway action Quote
03-28-2024 , 09:03 PM
On a simple (and hopefully correct) EV analysis, I calculate that you need about 25% for +EVchip. Against 2 opponents each playing top 50%, your showdown equity is about 28% so it's a close call for this villain assumed holdings and this is a showdown case with both opponents going all-in.

You didn't post stack sizes for an ICM estimate so I did a rough analysis assuming an average stack for each player not in the hand. I found that calling EV$ is about 10 vs a folding EV$ of about 8.

I personally think some players over-value small suited connectors since they are an underdog to most hands with an overcard but they do have more playabilty than some poor hands; eg. 67s >> 72o, but how many opponents will play 72o. The bottom of the top 50% range is a hand like Js4 and 67s vs J7o is a 45/55 underdog so realized equity becomes a critical metric for non showdown cases.
67s facing multiway action Quote
03-28-2024 , 09:36 PM
I don't think you have odds to call, particularly with ICM. Don't like raising this hand UTG with this stack size, and probably raise smaller.
67s facing multiway action Quote
03-29-2024 , 12:20 AM
Top 50% seems extremely wide for either of them, especially with the overcall.

Even though ICM isn't a particularly heavy consideration when less than half of the field remaining makes the money, it is still a consideration since chips you win are less valuable than chips you lose. You have 1.5x the average stack, which is a good position to be in. Don't give away that advantage by overplaying speculative hands or playing them when you shouldn't.
67s facing multiway action Quote
03-29-2024 , 07:05 AM
Cheers for the replies people

Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
Your raise is too large at your stack depth. I would open the minimum here. (I would also fold 76s UTG/8 at this depth almost all of the time.)
Not going to disagree with either of these points at a macro level, but both of these are opponent specific given we have the same group of players every week. Anything less than 2.5x will pretty much lose all fold equity as there's enough players that rightly or wrongly perceive it as too weak a move, I'm going the smallest I can where I can reasonably expect to steal the blinds, and while I would ordinarily fold most of the time, I will open things like this occasionally for balance, if I don't do this now and again I wouldn't get anywhere near the sort of action I do when I do hit top pair or better - my main question is having made that call in the first place whether the risk/reward of calling off the jam is worth it
67s facing multiway action Quote
03-29-2024 , 07:15 AM
Just fold initially. Don't try to steal the blinds from UTG. Fold to the jams. You clearly don't have odds to call.
67s facing multiway action Quote
03-29-2024 , 12:11 PM
Best case scenario: Both opponent have AKo and only 1/4 is your suit, you're a slight favorite.

Worst case scenario: Both opponents have overpairs you're about a 5:1 dog.

Based on your description of your opponents. I'm folding small to mid suited connectors preflop.
67s facing multiway action Quote
03-29-2024 , 03:49 PM
Setting aside the bet sizing since it's game-specific:

Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
I'm going the smallest I can where I can reasonably expect to steal the blinds
Problem is you're UTG/8 and with no cards that block a 3-bet shoving range. It's just a very unlikely scenario that you get this through and steal the blinds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
and while I would ordinarily fold most of the time, I will open things like this occasionally for balance, if I don't do this now and again I wouldn't get anywhere near the sort of action I do when I do hit top pair or better
Balance, and board coverage, for hands like this is more important when you're deeper. 40BB+ I'll open 76s UTG sometimes. You're at 22.5BB, you don't need to worry about balance as much. Or, more accurately, you still want board coverage in that you want your range, in aggregate, to be capable of stacking off on any board, but this short you don't have to worry about those being the nuts or effective nuts-- you're still stacking off with overpairs on 854 or 762, for example.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
my main question is having made that call in the first place whether the risk/reward of calling off the jam is worth it
I doubt it very much. You have to thread a pretty thin needle for this to be +cEV, with neither of them having a pair, and the cost of dropping from 20BB to 12.5 or so is pretty significant.

But this is just a math and range question on that point. Is it worth it? Well, what do you think your opponents' ranges are here?
67s facing multiway action Quote

      
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