On my second bullet of the $600. I have 52K at 600BB. Both Villains cover. I open UTG with 77 to 1300. Cutoff (A solid reg who I have no special reads on) 3! to 3300. Button (75K), a very loose splashy player who has already shown some very weak hands in 3! pots (98o, 96s, etc) flats. I call.

Flop (11,4) 9d7d6s. I lead for 7K, both call.

Turn (32,4) 8h. Check/Check/17K; Call/fold

River 5x. I check, Villain shoves for last 25K. I fold.

Thoughts on all streets welcome.

(I know my flop sizing is big, but I think I can get stacks in against a ton of Button's draws if I lead on the big side).

Ugh. Terrible run out. I think you played it fine, except I think modern theory says you should bet small on the flop, and then crank the turn when a blank comes. I think this is because most good draws are going to call the flop bet even for the larger size. But as played, I think you have to check call turn and fold river.

If you want to play higher variance given your read on button and the fact CO is probably capped, you might try squeezing pre -- but probably too many bbs for that.

I like the way the hand is played. I’m folding river bc I find it hard to bluff that river with non straights.

Me personally, I would not lead the flop. I don’t mind it but I almost never lead flops in 3! Pots (where I’m not the 3!). I’m sure gto wise- you are supposed to lead some flops etc but it’s just not something I do bc I feel it reveals our hand as having strength. In this spot, I would to for a x raise- might exploit go smaller on a raise. Maybe go like 2.7-3.2x the cbet or larger if it goes bet call. When you get flop, you make it very easy for flush draws to call and not spazz out.

Idk I’m interested what a solver would say to do. I’m sure lead is fine and this is type of hand we want to do it with.

Pre-flop is fine.

I prefer c/r flop. My hope is that villain bets on the flop so we can c/r jam (and make it look like we could have a flush draw and/or straight draw). The reason I think 3-bet guy will bet the flop is he may have an overpair or 88/98s/T9s or a flush draw. I don't think villain will check the flop with Tx or 8x though so you are in much better shape if villain checks back the flop than you are if villain calls the 7,000. Especially because we are OOP and the pot will be much smaller if he checks it back.

As played 17,000 bet on the turn is more than 40% of effective stack which is pretty bad by villain. Your implied odds are good enough to call (given you have 10 outs to a boat) if you believe that when the board pairs villain will call your river jam at least some of the time (which I think he will if he isn't bluffing) or he will jam the river some of the time if you check (which I think he might if he has a T).

I think you have to fold because there are so many 10 in villain's flush draws so it removes a lot of potential bluffs. And you stand to win only half the pot even if he is bluffing. Which because he bet 40% effective stack on the turn I doubt he is bluffing anyway.

Yeah, I didn't think this was a spot for a 4! pre. I know the cutoff is dead money, but it was just too many bigs to put in (85ish) with 77. Even with a 9BB overlay, that doesn't feel right, and, truthfully this was the exact kind of spot I wanted, I flop a set on a connected board with someone who is anxious to push draws.