Quote:
Originally Posted by jpgiro
I think there's just way too much assuming that UTG only has top of range here. Even if somehow the SB is nutted (which I doubt) we can still win piles against the UTG on the side.
Sure, we're going to be beat a good percentage of the time. UTG is going to flop some sets. He might have trapped AA. But when UTG has 99 or A8 and panic shoves because they don't want us to outdraw them or some nonsense (which is going to happen in a $600 tournament way more than you think, especially with this player type) we scoop this pot a ton.
Give Villain that range; AA,A8,99,88,66,33, and we are a small underdog for the side. It might get a little tricky, since the SB shoving range might block some of these hands; they might have 8x themselves for example.
FWIW, I think the trap hand here might be KK more often than AA. Fishy thinking goes something like: I get stacked by AA either way, but if I just trap here, I can get away when an Ace flops, and not lose my stack to Ax.
The nice thing about these spots is that they aren't solvable; No solver has a limp range, nor, as pointed out by others, the SB jamming 2x pot isn't a thing.
Thus this all gets to our experience in these street poker hands. What we really need is a better read on UTG.
Personally, I pay the most attention to those that are chronic limpers. Do they have a raising range? Do they like to trap? What does it mean when they limp/call then get aggressive. Since these things aren't GTO, ranging them is more important than trying to figure out a player who is playing somewhat standard.