Hand analysis 600$ live pko

3/37 players

3rd is 2k , 1st and 2nd is 3.6k

Blinds 4k/8k 8kbb ante

Im btn (200k) (35 yo guy) open Ts8c to 18k, ive been active 3 handed but losing every hand had 450k, down to 200k.

Sb (500k) middle aged 50 year old dude whos been quite active calls, i havent seen him do a huge bluff yet. He did turn 55 into a bluff by double barreling on A72 x turn

Bb (covers) aggro whale doesnt like to fold calls

Flop 8s4d7d (62k)

Checks around

Turn 8s4d7d Js (62k)

Checks around

River 8s4d7d JsTd (62k)

Checks to me, i bet 45k, sb starts to tank and looks at my stack and raises to 125k, whale folds, I hate life and??

Side note: i have a 650$ progessive bounty

Ugh, this is a tough spot.

I'm not sure what he could be turning into a bluff, except like maybe the bare Ad, and I dunno if people check-raise bluff live enough at these stakes. And I don't think this sizing would even get 65 or 9x to fold, let alone a flush. Your bet size is pretty big, so I don't know if he sees that as strength or as a bluff size. (It's also pretty big given the relative strength of your hand on this board-- at least live I would not at all be surprised to see people check/call better hands than yours.*)

On the other hand, after checking through twice, going for a river check-raise seems like a really poor way to get value.

The PKO factor also makes this super weird because I'm wondering why SB didn't raise enough to put you in. That makes me wonder if it's a bluff, or maybe he's already thinking about that and that's why he didn't raise more.

I don't really know; it's a judgment call. I guess I'd lean fold because the bet sizing is so small (especially after looking over your stack) that it seems like he wants a call, and it might make sense to play the nuts as a check-raise here if you think straights are going to bet (let alone two pair). But there's no real clear answer for this and it comes down to knowing your opponent and what they're capable of here.

Honestly, I might check this river back given the 3-flush and 4-straight, plus the final table ICM effects. (I also would probably bet the flop with top pair and this SPR, especially such a vulnerable top pair. I might not bet K8 on Kxx, but there are so many overcards to the 8 I think you need to bet something. We're a favorite to have the best hand here and I think that's when we need to put money in, try to take down the pot or deny equity to overcards and draws.)

In fact, given the bounty scenario and the stack sizes for all involved, I probably just fold preflop. I don't want to be entering pots with marginal hands off 25BB when the blinds have incentive to play pots against me and try to bust me, and I could thus find myself easily dominated postflop with a hand like this. I think you can even justify T8s or J9o, but this is just a little too weak.

(Both of the above are reinforced by your description of BB. Preflop, I don't want to get into marginal and confusing spots against a big-stack whale who hates folding; I'll bet more thinly for value, but I want to be able to do it confidently. And postflop, he sounds like the kind of player who could actually call you with worse on this board, so go ahead and get some value from him with your top pair.)

(* - My live story like this from a tournament series last year: Late on day 1 of the kickoff event to a series here, I think last summer, I open K8o from CO, SB calls. Flop Kxx, check/check. Turn K, SB bets, I call. River A, SB checks, I bet for value, he snap calls with KQo.)

Yes i think every street was very close. For pre i think i had folded 3 btns in a row which is unheard of 3 handed, so decided to open a bit wider.

River my big bet was to induce whale to make some type of hero call, did not expect sb to raise obviously, its also possible sb checked river to trap the whale.

Pre flop the hand is obviously a little "meh" but I don't think it is so bad that you can't open it from the button three handed, esp. since you say you have playing your button very tight lately.

I am curious why you chose not to c-bet when you hit the pair on the flop. I think I would have bet, and maybe even overbet, like put your $45k bet in on the flop instead of the river. Or just stack it in, and far more often than not you will pick it up right there and add $60k to your stack.

Your top pair will usually be ahead in a spot like this and if they want to call and try to put a beat on you why not let them. Every now and then they will have a crusher hidden away and you will look like a fool but so what, who cares.

Like i said every street was close imo, flop check a little bit of pot control, a little bit of hand strenght disguised. I obviously could’ve just bet , but thought it was more profitable to check, both decisions are close imo.

As I said, the problem is that your top pair is not safe at all and you're giving free cards to overcards and draws. There are few good cards for you on the turn-- only non-diamond 8s and 10s (offsuit 2s and 3s are probably fine as well). You need to get value while you're ahead and protect your hand from all the possible ways it can get outdrawn.

Againt 2 opponents your hand is likely ahead on the flop and I think pretty unlikeky to still be ahead if the 3 of you see turn & river. You could check an 8 with a better kicker maybe because then you need less protection.

Not sure why you're checking this flop - not a hand you want people to realize their equity - much better hands you can add to your checking range imo. River seems like a clear fold - while we won't have the flush we still have all the 9x and frankly given how this played out and who your opponents are they probably never turn anything into a bluff here.

I think you can fold this hand pre as it gets into a lot of dicey spots. Hmm first I would min open and not make it 18k like I always say. 18k is not going to get more folds as a steal so make it 16k and save that 2k when you face a 3! And have to fold.

As played- why do you not bet flop? If you are going to open 10-8o, I would
Bet this flop and probably bigger sizing as board is slightly wet with potential flush draw and straights that can occur with a sb and bb flat range. I think I would feel fine folding river based on villian. What you said- old guy I would exploit fold as this spot is super underbluffed in live game. I would cbet flop 30k-62k/ maybe even 90k is ok sometimes as a lol but idk bc we can’t fold to a x raise. I would say 30-45k is ideal. I would then shut down on most turns and try to get to showdown honestly. I dont like checking back flop against 2 here. I think I lol fold to a x raise also.

I hate check bc why open 10-8 if we don’t cbet when we flop top pair short handed?


I think I might fold 10-8o here unless blinds are over folding to pre flop raises which I doubt based on what you said. 10-8 suited sure go for it. 10-8o, maybe hope a sb Vs bb battle occurs and one loses a lot of chips or KO occurs.

3 handed I will often raise T8o OTB especially in a world where SB is calling and not only 3-betting.

This flop is very tough. It favors the SB and BB ranges except for overpairs. BB can have 65o. Normally I don't c-bet flops like this vs blinds. But because we are 3 handed our range is a lot wider and includes a lot of 7x and 8x and 4Xs. So I would c-bet here. I would likely fold to a c/r. The other problem that has been mentioned is that there aren't many cards that are safe for us if we check the flop.

The turn I would likely bet because the SB and BB checked. If we get called I am basically checking back the river unless an 8 hits.

This river is awful for us in the sense that it completes gutters and flushes and people would not call with a worse hand very often because we can have a 9. So I would always check it back as played. And I would fold to the c/r. In general c/r are virtually never bluffs on the river.