Button is a huge monkey and the sole reason we're on the bubble so early. Luckily he spewed some of it to me earlier

Onto the hand: we have JJ pretty deep and imo all my options suck, so just shove ftw?

Full Tilt Poker $55 + $5 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t2095 M = 13.97
Hero (BB): t2960 M = 19.73
CO: t1350 M = 9
BTN: t7095 M = 47.30

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is BB with J J
1 fold, BTN raises to t300, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2960 all in, 1 fold

i do the same,

flat calling to hit a set isn't attrocious but i think way too weak, we have a huge hand versus a moron,

if you 3bet to 750-900 then then a typical monkey is gonna flat with whatever he has and we're OOP on a flop that most of the time has over cards playing tight because we're 2nd in chips on the bubble, not such a nice situation,

shoving is just easier (as always) even so ridiculously deep, he might see it as weak and call you with some junky ace or some 77 type hand.

Shoving seems the best

go and go seems good against a monkey.

the trouble with go and go is chickening out when theres 2 overcards or even just an ace on the flop

I think flatting and playing a flop is good here. I just feel like a donk like this will call with a lotta hands that we are flipping against and given our equity in our tournament thats not cool. Every now and then too this donk will actually have a hand, so I think its best to take a cautious route here given the stack sizes.

I would shove here too vs an apponent that is really loose. I think you want to deter action from him as much as possible (and jacks are too good to fold in this situation). Also, if he is really active and loose, then you are in a great scenario with 2nd in chips and plenty of chips compared to the blind. I would sit back and let him do the work until the blinds get a bit bigger or the other players double through him.

The reason I would not go and go is that probably any hand that a very loose opponent would only call a 900ish reraise with and fold a flop that he didn't pair (rather than just put the rest of it in pre), would likely also just fold the hand to an all-in raise preflop.

way too passive, and a monkey will stack off with Ax and underpairs a lot

I like the re-raise here versus flatting and playing out of position. Pot size re-raise would pretty much commit you so therefore I favor a shove. JJ is vulnerable but you are ahead of his range, shove seems best here.

Shove is good. If the stacks were different such that the short stack was about to get blinded out it would be different, but the shortest is 13 bbs, this shove is way +EV.

I think shoving is probably best given the shorty and as irishman says if he calls 900 preflop he calls a shove a fair amount of the time too. If it wasn't the bubble i 3bet over shoving tho.

I'd shove here.

You guys are probably right but I'm such a nitty pu$$y. So next time I shove over you guys don't call cuz its a monster

Can't see myself doing enaything else but shoving. Let the donkey call u with 55.

so std

I wouldn't consider anything else.

wow to be so out voted and post the opposite as everyone else but i would play a flop.

when you shove against a donk you give up so much of a skill edge.

Although racing as a 66% favourite is obviously good how much more edge to you have post flop?

No one seems to be concerned about bubbling when there is one guy much shorter than us?

who cares about bubbling, care about maximize your ev

If you seriously, after some reconsideration, think calling could be better than being AI as a 66% fav (however you reach this number), you really shouldn't ever play poker again.

What do you mean by "skill advantage" with taking a flop, anyway? How does it manifest itself?

Ok guys, go easy.

It's great to have these statements however you are not backing them up with any material I can actually use.

No disrespect here - I'm not saying your wrong - i'm on here to learn. But i was hoping for some more solid advice backed by maths or logic etc.

For example. How do you model the fact that playing 'to win' is more +EV than playing 'not to bubble'? I'd love to see a proof!

Bob

I'm just not used to explaining simple things. Will hopefully have time to post more after this session.

I don't think anyone mentioned playing to win btw?

Oh, and that 66% thing didn't come out right. Sorry about that.

edit: Oh, and please do explain the "skill" thing wrt to seeing a flop.

Obviously, if you were always called when you shoved, then 66% wouldn't be good enough. In fact, you'd need a 72.73% edge to make a shove break-even. But the reality of things is that he'll fold lots of hands we do worse than 73% against - ie hands with one or two overcards.

I'm still confused by the skill advantage statement.

Ok cool. How did you compute this figure?

I feel that by using my initiative/poker experience (many years playing) I can fold out when i am losing and capitalise when ahead. I am not sure I want to give up that edge by shoving.

This is still poker right? ;-)

An ICM calculator.

I find it hard to imagine you can do this by playing OOP in a spot where you have the bubble factor talking against you. Especially since you aren't raising preflop when you are so far ahead. When are you going to make him pay, when you have a set?