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Old 07-28-2021, 10:28 PM   #1
Trex8063
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6-max river decision on bubble (also line-check)

Originally posted in MTT forum by mistake. Been out of poker for a number of years, just kinda/sorta getting back into it...

$1.50 buy-in, NL 6-Max
Top 2 spots paid, down to 3-handed

SB is just slightly loose, erring toward passive.
BB is a wannabe TAG [occasional weak/passive or mubsy play, or other semi-bizarre moves, but otherwise TAG(ish)]
My image should be fairly tight.

Hero [BTN] (1973 in chips)
SB (3746 in chips)
BB (3281 in chips)

Blinds 25/50 (Ante 6)

Pre-Flop: (pot 93) Hero holds K2
Hero raises to 135, SB folds, BB calls 85
Flop: (pot 313) KQ3
BB checks, Hero bets 157, BB calls 157
Turn: (pot 627) K
Hero bets 314, BB calls 314
River: (pot 1,255) 7
Hero bets 400, BB raises to 2,669 and is all-in, Hero???


Mostly I'm after opinions on what to do with this river decision, though also would like to hear any comments regarding my line in general.
Too weak for pf open? Other thoughts?
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Old 08-01-2021, 04:00 PM   #2
DukeOfDeath
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Re: 6-max river decision on bubble (also line-check)

I don't think the open is too wide according to like Monker-solved ranges. As far as your line, it kinda looks like "AK until proven otherwise" (essentially pretty polarized to nothing worse than trips for value 'or mayyybe some pocket pairs thinly targeting a 3... or worse pockets?' plus bluffs, which lean JT or AdXo). If he's raising into it, he could be losing his mind, but what bluffs does HE have? Solver work could prove me wrong, but you have plenty of nut flushes and better trips and even full houses yourself to not be overfolding when letting this go. You don't seem to have an opponent that specifically overbluffs, and it's a spot where it's hard to show up with too many bluffs anyway (AdJo/AdTo? JT that he knew on the turn call that he was going to do this with when ANY draw came in?). If he could put you on a million trip K that have to fold to a shove and somehow also discount your 6 KQ combos you can totally have, then sure he can turn any AdXo into a bluff, but he'd have to see you bluffing a ton to get here with A high. And to have a pair/straight draw to justify getting here with Ad is only like 8 combos (14 if he's sexy enough to turn AQ into a bluff and not have 3b with it pre). He has no reason not to have a flush, 33, KQ either. I think fold. You'll be wrong some, but not enough to make a call profitable.
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