First off, I would like to apologize to all the winning regs on the planet for killing the games with this article. I know that posting this is very, very -ev, because players who are mediocre will learn to play better and make more money because of this. It's just that I can't hold this information inside of me anymore, it feels too unfair towards hard-working people who just haven't come across this information yet.
The following is a collection of the most important things that I've learnt during my almost two-year career of playing donkaments for a living. Without these skills I wouldn't have made it this far. There are a lot of decent players posting on these forums who are already quite good and have potential, but haven't made it big yet. That's because they haven't mastered the skill of software reads.
The concept is quite simple. In 2011 there are many theories about the correct play in most situations. For example, the theory that 3bet shoving AK with 20BB is correct almost always. The truth is that it is correct in most situations, but not all, because
in practice in some spots it doesn't have the equity required when called. This is the difference between theory and practice, and playing with or without software reads.
Like all things in poker, software reads aren't 100 percent accurate. Depending on the read, they are between 60% and 99% accurate. Just like winning with aces preflop isn't going to happen 100% of the time. You can count on it happening most of the time (unless, for example, you are a few spots off the bubble nearing a sync break on Pokerstars, as you will soon learn), but you won't win every time. They key is to memorize the following software reads and their accuracies, and add it to the math. This makes poker calculations less simple and more time-consuming, but I can assure you that the rewards are immense.
We all know how to make folding equity calculations:
The last hand before the sync break on Pokerstars, three spots off the bubble. Villain covers us and opens from MP to 2500 at the level 500/1000/100. Folded to us and we have 88 in the big blind with 20k. If we go all-in, we expect villain to call with a range of 88+, ATs+, AJo and KQs. Against the range we have 40% equity. We need villain to fold at least 38% of the time for a shove to be profitable ($20000/40%/$5000/$2500).
However, since we're near the bubble on Pokerstars in the last hand before the sync break and just before the bubble, we know that regardless of our holding villain will win the hand 98% of the time. This means that in order for a shove to profitable, villain must actually fold almost every time or we lose a lot of money shoving, since we only have 2% equity instead of 38%.
I hope this example was enough to break down the math, in case it wasn't let me or other experienced players know and I'm sure someone will come up with more examples.
With that, we are off to the bread and butter of the article - the most common software reads. This information has been acquired by myself and other seasoned pros over the course of millions of hands. There have been exceptions to these rules from time to time, and that's what makes mastering the art of software reads so difficult - you can't count on these 100% of the time. To make the process of adjusting to software reads easier, I've added the "accuracy" value to each read.
Important note: In most cases, these only apply to MTTs. Play according to software reads in cash games at your own risk.
Enjoy!
Software Reads
Pokerstars (accuracy: 98%)
1) The sync break read. The bubble in large field tournaments literally always bursts either directly before or right after the sync break. If you have a short stack 2-5 spots off the bubble right before the sync break, it's best to fold your hand without even looking at your cards, because you are confirmed to lose the hand.
2) KQs has 75% equity against any given hand in a pre-flop all-in. Against TT and JJ it has approximately 90%.
3) The river is an ace more often than on any other site. This is especially true in pre-flop all-ins. The only exception is if you're all-in with KQs against a hand with an ace - in this case the likelyhood of the river being an ace is close to zero.
4) The flush appears on either the turn or the river over 50% of the time when the flop comes monotone.
5) Pairs lose the coinflip to overcards more than 70% of the time. Because of this it's very profitable to go all in with hands such as JT and QJ, and one must avoid hands like 77 and 88 as restealing hands.
PartyPoker (accuracy: 75%)
1) There is a queen on every ****ing board. It's so common that I'm not even going to give a percentage for it, such as "97% of boards". I'm just going to say that it's on every ****ing board.
2) The most common flops when the money is not in pre-flop are Q94r (or possibly with the queen and the nine being the same suit) and Q32r. This makes hands such as Q3, Q2 and Q9 extremely playable on Party.
3) Sets are incredibly hard to make with small pairs, and one should generally just give up the dream of making one.
4) Party boards have an unusually high amount of high cards between an ace and a jack. Tens are extremely uncommon. In general, it's a wise idea to only play the following combinations: QJ, KJ, KQ, AJ, AQ, AK and JJ-AA.
5) JJ beats AA pfai at final tables about 78% of the time.
6) In the money, when we are one elimination off from balancing the tables and it's the last hand before the sync break, there is going to be a massive setup involving one of the shortest stack resulting at his elimination. This is so that they can balance the tables when players are on break. If you have pocket kings as one of the shortest stacks right before the sync break, it's wise to observe the other tables and see if someone else busts before making a decision. If someone else busts, you're safe and may play the hand. If not, it's time to make a hero fold.
7) There are more KK's and AA's dealt on Party than on any other site. On this site you must adjust your requirements for going all-in, because you will run into KK and AA so much more often. It's usually not a good idea to commit over 50 big blinds with QQ, because they always have KK or AA. If you want to learn how to make combinatrics calculations with the likelyhood of someone having KK or AA pre-flop higher than it should be, it's simple - just add more combos of KK and AA in everyone's range! Give them two different AdAs's, two different AdAh's and so on.
Ongame (accuracy: 92%)
1) Pair wins a coinflip against overcards about 75% of the time. Ongame is quite possibly the only site on the planet where it's extremely favourable to go all-in with pairs. The one hand you must stay away from is AK, it wins all-ins on this site less often than anywhere else. The most loathed "flip" is TT against AK. In this particular case TT wins almost 95% of the time. I once was the victim of an exception to this rule when I lost a race for the chiplead with TT to AK with 20 left in their Sunday major. Poker is a cruel game sometimes.
2) AT is the best hand to wager all of your chips pre-flop. It wins especially against AK, AQ and AJ over 75% of the time. It also regularly cracks hands such as KK and AA. It does significantly less well against JJ-KK than against AK-AJ, though, because of rule #3.
3) There are much less aces on the deck than on any other site. Because of this you must especially avoid situations where a 10BB stack pushes from late position and you have Ax in the blinds. While this would often be a call on other sites, it's a fold at Ongame because it's so unlikely you'll hit the ace.
4) TT wins JJ 85% of the time in a pre-flop all-in.
5) 33, 44, 55, 66 and TT are the easiest hands to hit a set with.
6) KQ wins AJ and TT about 80% of the time all-in pre-flop. It's the only hand that is theoretically flipping that is a favourite against TT.
7) Ongame doesn't allow "big stack runovers". When someone enters the final table as a chipleader he always loses the first few all-ins to even the field. It is possible to obtain a huge stack with three and two tables left, but as soon as you enter the final table as chipleader it's best to fold the first few orbits regarless of what you have, because you are doomed to lose if you try our luck.
iPoker (accuracy: 88%)
1) The river is an ace almost as frequently as on Pokerstars. This is especially true in pfais where a pair is racing against AQ or AK.
2) AQ is a massive favourite against AK. In fact, AQ is the most winning hand on the site and hits either an ace or a queen a whopping 87% of the time.
3) Diamonds hit the flush more often than other suits, making AdQd an immortal hand.
4) 22 is the best hand for making a set.
Microgaming (accuracy: 84%)
1) AQ beats AK in a race close to 80% of the time. Alongside with Ongame, Microgaming is a site where in general pairs are favourable to overcards. The diffence is that the smallest of pairs still lose to overcards fairly often (except for 44), but in situations such as 77 vs AJ or 99 vs AK the pair is over a 70% favourite.
2) 44 and 77 are the most likely hands to make a set.
3) A4 beats higher Ax at an accuracy of over 70% pfai. That's because A4 hits a straight more often than any other hand on this site. "The 532 board" is a well-known secret among Microgaming regulars.
4) MicroGaming is the only site where hearts is the most likely suit to make a flush.
5) The small stack always doubles up against the bigger one in the final table in at least the first ten all-ins. As a small stack it's important to go all-in all the time early in a final table before others get a chance to. As second in chips you should aim to clash with the chipleader as much as possible and wager all of your chips pre-flop. NOTE: this only works in pre-flop all-ins.
888poker (Pacific) (accuracy: unknown)
Note: I haven't played enough on this site yet to be sure about these. They are mostly just observations.
1) There seems to be an extremely large number of small cards on the boards. Especially treys and fives are found on almost every flop. This, it seems, makes 53 the most playable hand on the site.
2) Small pairs seem to be huge favourites in pre-flop all-ins, because they make a set close to 45% of the time, and beat overcards close to 75% of the time.
Everest (accuracy: 81%)
1) There is an unusually high amount of picture cards in their decks. QJ, KJ and KQ are the three hands that make the most money in the long run. Aces are generally flipping against any combination of two paints.
2) 88 is the most likely hand to make a set. This is entirely unique in online poker.
3) If the board runs exceptionally enough to have no paints in it by the turn, the river is almost always an ace.
4) A small pair beats an overpair between 40 and 50 percent of the time in final tables.
Merge (accuracy: unknown)
Note: Again, these are only based on a limited sample.
1) This site seems to have abandoned paint cards almost entirely. It's virtually impossible to catch them on any board. The most likely paint card you can see is a jack. The least playable hand on the entire site is KQ.
2) It seems that there are aces on more boards than there should be. However, they never come in pairs. The most likely boards are dry ones with an ace such as 627A9.
3) Hands that can make the 6789T straight make straights at an incredibly high success rate. In general, this mid-connectors are more playable on this site than anywhere else.
I hope this article was helpful to you. If you have any questions, don't be afraid to ask!
PS. It's been a pleasure posting 5000 posts on this board. I have learnt an incredible amount of knowledge from you guys, and even that it isn't much at all, I won't be anywhere near where I am right now without some of you. You know who you are.
xo xo
Chuck Bass
