Quote:
Originally Posted by deuceblocker
I am a fan of limping short stacked late and from the SB. However, limping is just awful here. The only alternative to pushing IMO is like minraise and shove most flops.
When you push, BB should overfold, due to potentially being knocked out and that most people don't push wide enough. OP lost 2 flips and was out. You win the first flip and become a big stack.
BB should almost never fold with 4 blinds to call and 3 already in the pot. So 4 bb's to call and end up with 11 bb's. So if I had A6 and you showed me AK or KK I would call every time.
If I were BB I would fold hands like 72o/83o/94o/etc. Maybe like 20% of the time I would fold.
Which means that in this hand we are trailing most of the time when called.
However the description of Villain indicates he is a limper preflop. Which means he is not aggressive. He will call in the BB with most hands. So it is an ideal situation to limp.
Because we have virtually no fold equity we don't gain the normal fold % from BB when jamming preflop which means that a whole segment of the advantage of jamming with SC's pre-flop is out the window.
Quote:
Really bad late tournament play to be worried about what happens if your pushes get called and you lose.
We are not close to the money so it doesn't matter if it is late tournament or not.
We are going to lose 4.5 bb's and drop to 7 bb's more than we will win the 7.5 bb's in the pot and get up to 19 bb's (which incidentally won't happen the other 50% of the time). Maybe 20% of the time BB folds and we end up with the same 14 bb's we would have if we win when we limp (which should happen close to 50% of the time).
Why would we want to have 7 bb's almost 50% of the time? That would give us virtually no fold equity preflop. Having 19 bb's does not give us a big stack. It does give us the ability to minraise a little preflop but because the average stack is 11 blinds we are just as likely to be jammed on as we will be called. Of course if the effective stack size of the remaining players in the hand is below 15 bb's I would jam anyway (I know most of you would minraise above 12 bb's).
I would jam here with Ax/KXs/QXs/K8o+Q9o+/ and any PP. I would likely limp/fold K2o-K7o/Q8o/JT/J9s/J8s/T9s too