Random Site - 2000/4000 Ante 400 NL - Holdem - 5 players

UTG: 15.54 BB
CO: 4.05 BB
Hero (BU): 17.21 BB
SB: 4.78 BB
BB: 22.55 BB

5 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2 BB) Hero has Q A

UTG raises to 2.17 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.17 BB, fold, BB calls 1.17 BB

Flop: (7.52 BB, 3 players) 7 8 A
BB checks, UTG bets 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold

Turn: (11.52 BB, 2 players) J
UTG checks, Hero ???



Hi everyone, first post here. Here's some context for this hand:

• Final table bubble, 10 players left. Payouts are $500 for 1st and 2nd, $50 for 3rd through 7th
• We are 3rd of 10 in chips, and the average stack is 11.4 BB
• No specific reads on Villain, except for a note that he had a limping range ~20BB, and that he did not appear to be a highly winning reg.
• Reviewing hands afterward, I saw that Villain had opened the same size the hand before with A4o from HJ, and A5s from EP a few orbits earlier with a similar stack size.
• At the time, I perceived the small open as pretty polarized, but weighted towards strong value hands that AQs doesn't do well against, especially with the ICM considerations.
• Sidenote: my mindset was a bit off during this hand. A couple of minutes prior in another tournament, I shoved BvB and lost in a huge equity spot on the stone bubble. It was correct to shove ATC in that spot, but I was still recovering from the lost, and was feeling more risk adverse than I perhaps should have been.

I would appreciate any feedback on how I played this hand. Obviously, the two decision spots here are preflop and turn. I ran this hand in ICMIZER, which shows that AQs is a clear profitable shove (~+0.50% to +1.00%) against any reasonable range. At the time, I felt that if we jam and get called, it's pretty disastrous from an ICM perspective and just wanted to play a small pot in position. Is calling bad here, or is there some merit to playing post-flop?

What is the correct line on the turn?



Thank you in advance, everyone!

Easy shove preflop !

As played I bet more flop because I want to bet allin on the turn (Top pair with this depth = put the money in the middle asap).

One question : what would you have done if UTG didn't open preflop ?

I would have open jammed if UTG folded. Easy decision, nothing to think about in that situation.

On the flop, UTG bet and I called, so I didn't have a choice regarding the sizing. I think 8k is a good size by the PFR with their entire range. A87r is pretty dry. Also, an 8k bet leaves exactly a pot sized bet behind on the turn.

I am quite a conservative player when it comes to bubble play, especially if I have to play a hand against someone who can bust me and has a strong opening range. So I don't blame you for flatting here, although other aggressive choices are not a mistake per se. We flopped top pair and Villain makes a min bet and then checks turn. I'd bet at this point to deny a free card to flish draws and re-evaluate river since we are in position.

If this spot had happened in mid stages, I would have reshoved flop or raised flop and shoved turn at this depth without thinking twice.

Yes, same here. I will take every marginal spot when I have the chip lead, but I take the conservative route when I have a medium big stack.

A couple of notes:
- Villain bet 2BB (or ~1/4 pot), so it's not a min bet.
- As played, there is exactly one PSB behind on the turn. If we bet, what size are we making it? That was part of what I was agonizing over. My instincts told me to bet, given Villain's perceived range and the board texture, but I couldn't come up with a sizing that we can bet/fold, so I just decided to take the easy way out and jam.

I'm not really in love with jamming since we will get called mainly by hands that beat us, but we are basically pot committed no matter what we do. I'm quite sure we can never get away from this spot at this point

If payouts are as top heavy as stated, It's an easy jam pre as we want to win as many chips as possible.

Yes, the stated payouts above are correct. It is not a normal payout MTT, and is very top heavy. As mentioned above, I ran the hand in ICMIZER, and I was surprised how much +EV a preflop jam is. Usually, AQs is pretty marginal on the bubble, but against ICMIZER's default range, the reshove range should be at least 55+,ATs+,AJo+,KTs+,KQo,QTs+,JTs.

I just started playing this tournament regularly, and I will definitely adjust my ranges as they deviate significantly from a normal MTT bubble.

Is the consensus that we can't get away from AQs preflop, and as played, we can't get away from top pair, good kicker postflop?

I just want to make sure that I didn't butcher the turn too badly. I knew that jamming turn was not ideal, but at the same time, I couldn't think of another option that was better.

you're playing way too tight here - definitely jam pre - as played - once we have TPGK with spr of <2 we should not be thinking about folding so it's just a question of how to get it in.

Just think what V will be doing with all his raggy Aces that have hit top pair - don't think he will find a fold anywhere. I guess flop call is justifiable as a trap but def bet the turn and gii river.

The above was written before i looked at the payouts - but they make it even more important to play aggressively The very top heavy payouts mean that ICM factor is smaller - to have a chance of top 2 we are going to need to chip up so just play it like it was a mid-stage hand.