I'm writing on top of my head so please bear with me.

Villain is Brazilian goldstar - came to FT as shortstack. Only relevant hand we played was at the beginning of FT. Folded to me on SB(180k) where I limped AA and he checked(65k) at 2,5/5k blinds. I bet 9600/called jam on 9 8 2r and lost to 96o.

We are 7handed now, villain has doubled once more with 99>77 and is 3rd in chips (200k). We are 2nd with 225k.

I open @3/6k to 12k with A2dd and he flats IP at CO.

Flop
Qd Td 6c

Villain calls 17,5k cbet

Turn 5c

Villain calls 36k barrel

River 2c

Hero ? we have ~PSB left as effective - 2-3 people with ~10bb , CL has 50bb. Dont really care about payjumps but would like to know what would be most optimal here to apply maximum pressure or should I just x/f it ?

Could do with more info on villain but I think his standard range here is:
-one pair hands - you block AQ so KQ, QJ, ATs, KTs, JTs
-missed draws KJ, some FD but not many given you have Ad
-backdoor flush hands that he floated eg KJcc, Axcc though you have a blocker for Ax hands.
-don't think he has any monsters in his range as he's 3 betting QQ pre, raising any sets or QTs OTF or OTT on draw heavy board.

We've triple barrelled so it kinda polarizes our range - but I think we still have overpairs, AQ as well as sets in our range.

Really depends on opponent - how loose he's calling down - if he's tight he may lay down a 1 pair hand, if loose he's prob calling the river if he called OTT unless you do something crazy like overbet bluff river.

I prob bet 2/3 and turn our pair 2s into a bluff

Why are we barrelling turn? Think turn spot is pretty interesting about whether we should barrel and what sizing to use. What do you think his range is on turn before he calls? after he calls?

Isn't it a mistake to "not care about pay jumps" we are 2nd and 3rd in chips, and there are abunch of players on life support, and somehow we are on the river wondering wethor to triple barrel or not. it's not everyday you get to the final table in a large field seems ignoring icm is not best idea.

did you limp the aa hand from utg spot or late position? if it was utg spot and this guy just stacked off 69 and he's calling two streets with abunch of guys ready to bust I don't think there is much fold equity here. A lot of people will check something like aa in this spot too so he may look us up lighter. So in a vacuum I think give up anyways, the 69 stackoff at a final table early is enough to make me think in a vacuum this guy is folding very rarely after he calls turn. And if you do bring in icm or consider cost/benefit of unloading the clip here I would definitely give up.

We have some showdown value here, I assume you bet turn b/c you think he has a lot of flush draws/straight draws and we are beating all of those now on river. They are just going to fold all his missed draws and call everything else. You are targeting a weak 10 here specifically, which is pretty thin part of his range imo.

That AA vs 69 was bvb and expected to get jammed by goldstar alot on that spot. Checking turn has merits deff but decided to b/f turn since im drawing purely to fd if he were to raise it imho plus also expected to get folds from some random Tx.

River is interesting since although we are polarized if we were to empty the clip I dont know how he perceives it. Ive gotten mixed replies on it , some say x/f since we hold Ad and others think competent player should fold Qx here even esp. due to ICM.

Edit:

Im probably overthinking it , in hindsight I think checking turn is better yeah.

Hold your breath, cross your fingers, and bet 2/3 pot.

That's what I'd do.

Gotta take one more stab at this pot IMO and you will fold out most Tx hand and maybe even some Qx.

I don't think the bvb situation from earlier indicates he is necessarily going to call light here. He had top pair in bvb with 13bb in that spot...

Fold pre. A2s from MP should be a fold 7handed. Even more so if some of those <10bb stacks are behind us.

Flop yeah fine, but if you're going for a polarized range I probably prefer a turn c/r over 3barrelling.

As played he's called ~2/3 pot bet on the turn and the river is the blankiest of blanks, I doubt he's folding any made hand. And there are actually a reasonable amount of draws we still beat. Add the ICM considerations to that and I'm happy to just give up.

The reason I don't like x/folding OOP here is that there are so many draws in villain's range. There are more busted draws in his range than there are Qx combos.

If we show weakness on the river and check, do we really think a competent villain is not firing out at this pot with a missed draw?

So unless you're checking with the intent to call I think it's weak and leaky to check this river.

My first thought is to put out a blocker bet of like 1/4 pot to get him to toss his missed draws. But then I'm thinking he will obv peel that type of bet with a Tx so why not go a little bigger and try to fold that out too.

we have to realize villain can have had a draw and backed into some kind of straight or two pair hand, and the backdoor flush comes in. We can't just bet because we are scared of being bluffed, that isn't solid enough reasoning. Think a block bet is more weaker and transparent than just checking, and you will probably induce exactly what you are trying to avoid happening more often than it would have if you just checked, in my view anyways.

Sometimes you are just going to have to deal with having a tough decision. I was thinking about that it would be very read dependant and also if there is any time tell. if he has bluffed missed draws before and important to know if he will valuebet his one pair queen hands. In some cases I could definitely see calling off vs the right player on river.

I get what you're saying, I just feel like check folding is handing him this pot and I just don't see him having improved with this runout. Maybe he didn't need to improve , but it seems probable the river didn't help him and he would have raised his strong hands OTT, so I think even if we are wrong and he wasn't drawing I think we have a good chance of folding out Tx.

Check calling was another thought I had but I guess I'd just rather keep the initiative, I think our fold equity is real here.

Tx seems like such a narrow part of his overall range to be focusing so much on this river imo. not a lot of random tx should call pre and call double barrel vs early opener at final table on a two tone straight drawy board. And if he somehow is doing this, is this then why should we expect him to fold the river ever if the board doesn't change much and he's already called us down on pre and two barrels. Seems like to me, the same guy that somehow gets to river with tx is a perfect example of a very poor candidate to triple barrel bluff. This is without even considering the other factors like shortstacks and icm/ final table considerations.

Not focusing on 10x, I'm focusing on busted draws and choosing not to let him blast the river and make us fold the best hand.

Maybe 10x isn't likely, but Qx isn't either which leads me to believe he was drawing OTF
and none of the flop draws hit. QJ is the only Qx I can believe here.

I dunno, I can see x/c too.

Let's go with your hypothesis,


if the bulk of his hand is draws that whiffed:
1)what do we accomplish by betting the river. Won't we force missed draws to play perfectly and fold, not giving them any opportunity to misplay the bulk of their range?
2) And; so we can't have it both ways right..
If we are so worried about being blown out by a missed draw that we are betting just to avoid it, wouldn't we just check, and grab our ballsack and snapcall because we are ahead of his range? How can he make us fold the river; did he seize control of our mouse?
3)if he is not going to bluff then he will always checkback and we win anyways.

So most of his made hands the few that they are will consist of qj. So we bet river to target and force him to fold 1) all his missed draws
2) qj as played?

Putting aside you opening with A-2, given he has called two streets and the only information on him is that he has called previously with top pair to your barrells, it is doubtful that he is floating with nothing. Time to check.

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he's not saying check is bad he's saying c/f is bad, so you should either valuebluff b/f or c/c. I don't really know tbh cause I wouldn't want to bet any less than a shove cuz I think tp/2nd pair type hands are more likely than any whiffed draws at this point so I'd prolly just c/f

Yeah all fair points.

I would have a hard time in-game x/c a shove with a pair of 2s and this stack, a bit easier to type than it is to do.

I would feel dirty x/f

I hear ya though. Interesting hand.

Results?

Great hand to post thanks. Interested what peoples thoughts are on the turn as well, and sizing given sprs?

Ingame I was also thinking same way and just didnt want to x/c ai with bottom pair - jammed and got called by QTs , but either case he would have jammed if we checked and wanted to know what would have been optimal. X/f river is best still I think , esp due to ICM ...

Nice line by villain letting you barrel away, I'd expect most players to raise the turn with QT.

Wow

NH

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So you don't think he bluffs then if he has missed flush/straight draws?
Do you think he will valuebet something like qk?

Why are you open limping aces preflop ?

With said hand I would check fold ott - maybe even otf as well.

If you think he'll fold a ten or a queen then by m
all means donk shove but seems like nice work if you can get it IMO.