Here's a spot that might be trivial but I'm curious for thoughts.

$400 $100k GTD, with a mystery bounty. We are on Day, ITM with <30 remaining. Bounties are currently $200 and shift to mystery bounty format w/24 left. $15k up top, $5k is top bounty. We've currently locked up <$1k.

Blinds 15k-30k, 30k BBA.

Hero (1.25m) opens 6s6d UTG to $60k.
Folds to Villain in BB (860k) who defends.

Flop Ks 7s 4c. (pot: 165k)
Checks through.

Turn 7c, bringing a second flush draw.
BB Villain checks, Hero bets 70k. BB snap jams for about 750k.

Only a couple orbits of history w/Villain so no strong previous reads. Villain has been slightly splashy. May perceive Hero as sticky.

Questions:
How many value combos does Villain actually have in this spot when he overbet x-raise jams instantly on a wet board like this with two flush draws? How many bluff combos? (We block 6-5, 8-6, 6-3 and hold a spade.)

How much weight should we place on the timing tell? In my experience, players almost always pause to consider sizing when raising for value, and a snap jam & huge overbet like this is usually a strong indication that the x-raiser has a drawing hand.

Happy for feedback on all streets but primarily wanted a gut check on whether you consider bluff-catching here with third pair. Villain just seems heavily weighted toward draws.

For me this is an insta fold.

We block straight draws. We block flush draw.

In a live setting a quick jam is typically very strong. I do try to balance by bluffing quickly as well... A different live timing tell is a tank jam/large bet. That is almost always very strong as well. In general live the longer a person takes to bet the more I think it can be a bluff though they can also be trying to figure out how to size their value bet.

Also from a timing consideration how long did you take to bet on the turn? The entire time you take to bet is also time Villain has to consider bluffing or betting for value.

The one consideration I would have for calling here is that the board pairs which often can be a bluff. Still timing wise I think this is a value jam a lot more than a bluff.

The fact that there are two flush draws is another reason why villain would jam with 7x or Kx.

The last reason I think this is not a bluff is that Villain should mostly be bluffing by leading out the turn once you have checked back the flop.

I think you have the absolute bottom of your bluff catching range here. I think I would let this go without any more info on the villain. The size of the bet that you have to call relative to the pot make this a fold, IMO. To make a hero call with this hand, I would really want to have a good read on the other player. I think best case scenario is you are looking at Asx or Acx. But against something like AsTs, they have 38% equity against you. If they have Kd and some other diamond, they are 95% against you. It's a very marginal call and even when you are right, you are slightly ahead, when you are behind, you are crushed.

It probably wouldn't have made any difference, but I would bet the flop here. It's about as good as it's going to get with a medium pair unless you flop a set or get something crazy like 345. Most turn cards will be bad for you and you need to deny equity to hands like AT/QJ as well as charge flush draws. I personally would rather end the hand now than check back and have to navigate some weird turn card.

Why are you checking flop when you have a range advantage against a bb and the bb is going to overfold here? Cbet 40-60k (1/4- 1/3rd) pot and print chips. They play back at you? Just muck.

Delay cbetting turn here is too lolz. I’m like auto cbetting flops that favor our range Vs the bb in this spot and going super small so I can double barrel or triple barrel if I see fit. Huge mistake not betting this flop. As played, simple turn fold. You might be good once in a while but do you want to guess here?