I bet small on this flop because I mean they either have a draw or have me smoked so I dont think there is much point in betting big. Once he donks the turn I'm pretty sure he has 9x because wtf else would he have in this spot 3-handed. Is this a good read or just a horribly nitty fold?


Poker Stars $4.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: t1480 M = 49.33
CO: t1490 M = 49.67
BTN: t1370 M = 45.67
SB: t1660 M = 55.33
BB: t1500 M = 50
UTG: t1500 M = 50
UTG+1: t1500 M = 50
UTG+2: t1500 M = 50
Hero (MP1): t1500 M = 50

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is MP1 with K K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t20, 1 fold, Hero raises to t80, 2 folds, BTN calls t80, SB calls t70, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls t60

Flop: (t340) 9 8 9 (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t150, BTN calls t150, SB folds, UTG+1 calls t150

Turn: (t790) 3 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets t280, Hero folds, BTN calls t280

River: (t1350) 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets t300, BTN folds

.

Your bet sizing OTF is kinda weak, and your fold OTT is totally befuddling. I'm likely b/c AI OTF shoving over that lead OTT for value as 8x or any pair isn't folding now given the line they've taken iyam and no danger card hit.

I definitely bet the flop weak on purpose because I don't expect to get bluffed (maybe semi-bluffed) on this board very often and by betting small I got him to basically reveal his hand on the turn

I don't mind the bet hoping to induce a raise OTF, but if you KNOW what villain had, and are SURE you were beat, why are you posting this hand? I don't think you're beat as often as you think, look at the factors:

A) you've made a weak bet OTF and your range shouldn't look particularly strong to villain (so idk what you mean when you say villain is now "revealing their hand to you"...what?)

B) a # of 8x, pocket pairs, aand draws could be blocking w/ a weak bet here, all hands we beat. Of course sometimes they have trips or a FH, but alot of the time they don't. You're not accounting for this and a fold could be a really bad mistake in this spot. As I said no scary card came so villain seeing your weak line and no change to the board thus far is probably still confident enough in their hand to try to get to showdown for as cheap as possible. Weak players take this line pretty often w/ marginal hands.

so you were b/f flop? that isn't good.

I bomb flop and bomb turn. Plenty of draws/worse hands they'll get it in with.

On the contrary, because the board is drawy/dangerous you should bet bigger. That way villains drawing are charged more, maybe you fold out some draws that still had some decent equity vs you (which is fine), and when they do call they're not getting proper odds

I like something like 280 (~80%) otf

As played (or if the action still goes the same) I definitely am calling his tiny little lead out on the turn. I'm somewhat pessimistic now because I don't know why he's leading our suddenly or why it's so small, and I'm starting to wonder if this is his idea of "trapping" or if he's trying to price me in like the fish he is

OTR I am just calling any reasonably sized bet, no need to raise on such a dangerous board. Definitely calling any tiny bet size like that, even if I think it means I'm beat a lot

this

my standard is to bomb the flop and bomb the turn but i am drunk and i decided to take an alternate line. Mullen I respect your opinion, what range do you think the dude who donks the turn has?

+2

i just cant see what villain is tryin to rep here. why would he call flop and lead turn with 9x? he is offerin the prefect price for any kind of draw + a 9x hand should be betting a lot more or even raisin the flop for value imo. i agree that u r way more scared here than u should be, u should be approachin here a lil different than thinkin that the only possible holding for villain is a 9x hand.

I think this hand is kind of interesting actually. It's a spot where I tend to get the most value from semibluff hands and worse pp's, as I always stack off in this spot. I also get value from stuff like JT/QT that might turn/river a pair. I also lose 100% of the time against 9x and flopped boats (88). I actually can see merits in all kinds of lines; betting a lot and trying to get it in maximizes value from fd's/combo draws, but loses the max against 9x and boats; betting a little gets calls from smaller pp's, A hi's, guttie overs (QJ/QT/JT), but loses value against draws.

With that said, I'd bet something like 225 on the flop, hoping to get enough random calls from QJ/QT/JT/smaller pp/wtf-Ahi, and never planning to fold at any point in the hand. 150 is fine, I think it's missing out on some value, but maybe you induce more weaker hands to call. As played, I'd ship the turn; that 3 is a huge blank, there are a ton of worse hands that might spite call your turn shove and "gamble" (fd's, sd's, worse pp's). Planning to hero fold this at any point doesn't cross my mind given drawy nature of the board. If the board had been QQ2 and I got 3 callers, I'd start hero folding.

whats suddenly wrong with stacking off in the 1st level on these kind of flops?

you know that their ranges are uberwide and with 150BB stacks i prob dont get the stack in but with 75BB i'm usually take the bet/shove line here and comitt OTT

Why has nobody mentioned that the villain's turn bet could just be a donk blocker???

Seems highly likely, I think you're being waaaaaaaayyy over-cautious here. I happily re-raise on the turn, I think 80% of the time they're just donking you here with something like JTs AT BEST.

With 4 undercards and a drawy board how on earth can you be thinking of anything other than getting your stack in? You have both of them crushed most of the time.

Fold ott is really bad.