Run Good Poker Series $350 buyin
Mostly tight recs, few regs but no one of note.

15 players left 12 get Paid.
$10k+ First $715 for 12th.

Hero has 42 BB
Button (possible reg, atleast competent) has 28 BB
Rest of Table 6-14BB

7 handed table
Hero (42BB) middle position opens to 2BBswith A5 ♠️
Cutoff (14BB) calls
Button (28BB) calls
Big Blind (9BB) calls

Flop Kc, 7h, 2s

Big Blind, Hero, Cutoff all check
Button bets 2BBs
Big Blind folds
Hero raises to 8BBs
Cutoff folds

I told myself when I checked flop, if the button specifically bet, I was going to check raise. I think he bets most pairs for protection and possibly might just stab given the 9BBs in the pot with any 2 cards. I believe my move looks incredibly strong on a completely dry board. I have some back door equity and range advantage and had made no moves like this previously without having the nuts. His range includes all pairs 22-1010, Ace highs, most suited connected, plus off suit KQ, KJ, K10, QJ, J10. He never has AA, AK, or KK. I thought at the time that this put him into a shove or fold position, with that being said I misread his stack and originally thought he had 25BBs. Sets will obviously continue, but any pair not including a K should snap fold. No Kx should feel very good about continuing as I can easily have AA or AK. K7 & K2 suited are in my range here, but do not know if the button realizes that. I probably would not do this with a set, but either way I think it looks incredibly strong. If he shoves I just fold obviously.

Button tanks. Starts talking about how fast I raised like I had not thought it out. Clock is called and with 5 seconds left calls.

Turn is a 4c
I think shortly and shove. After the long tank I decided no matter if I picked up equity on the turn I was going with it. If he had called quicker I might have backed off thinking he might indeed have a set.

Button tanks again. Clock is called a couple minutes faster this time. With about 10 seconds left he says “I call I have no F ing clue what you have” Turns over KQoff.

River Blank.

I doubled a shorty shortly after AQ vs AJ, but still managed to finish 11th for the min cash.

So what we think. Well played or dumbass move. Most people tell me they would fold if they were the button, but it is 50/50 as to if I should have even made the play.

I don't see the amount of his flop bet, your check raise or the amount you shoved on turn. Assuming you check raised 10-18bbs on the flop, you would have jammed around 30bbs on the turn but he starts with 20bbs less. So the Jam is probably for 50% or less of the pot.

So it seems like a punt to me. My guess is you had a top three stack at this point and punted it into the second biggest stack at your table. The run good events I played are very top heavy with the prize pool - nearly 80% going to the top three spots. I don't mind the move you made and it seems to have stumped the villain but I don't see what hand you were representing here with your betting. The turn clearly is a blank card and I don't ever see you playing ak or aa like this.

I min raised to 2 Big Blinds preflop. With the 3 callers and ante the pot was 9 bigs going to the flop. He bet 2 bigs on flop I raised to 8 and he called. On turn the pot was 25 big blinds he had 20 bigs behind so an 80% pot sized bet. I thought I was raising a larger portion of his stack on the flop, but had miscalculated his stack size. I agree that it’s definitely a punt if I’m giving him such good odds on the turn. The flop miscalculation actually helped my stack to pot ratio shove on turn.

I certainly don't put ever failed bluff into the "punt" category but I suspect that if villain had 10 more bbs your bluff probably would have worked.

As played, you certainly put villain in a tough spot on the turn but I still don't know what hand(s) he would reasonably think you were repping here.

Massive punt. No reason to raise flop with almost no equity against some hands. Maybe can call at a small freq but I’m just pitching here bc 42 bb and at a crucial stage- better spots can be found. Why raise flop? Once villian calls, they aren’t pitching most of the time- especially with a hand. I would error here on passing on this “shitty spot” that is going yo work such a small % of the time- it’s not even worth trying.

Sure if you have more equity on the flop like 2 spades, sure go for it. This flop nope. Give up. Find a better spot. Run good series- middle America is too passive and can easily be exploited in other spots.

I think there are times when this kind of play can be reasonable, and I don't necessarily agree that villain can't put you on any value hands, but this is just such a terrible spot to do this strategically. You're near the bubble and people are going to be playing super passive trying to make the money. Their stacks are way shorter than yours, so they're either going to overfold and let you take down literally every pot (you can raise with any two if you want) or they're going to desperately shove it in with marginal hands, and you can wait for good hands to call them. All you need to do here is play ABC and you have a massive equity advantage.

I think your flop play is fine, in a vacuum, if you have good reason to believe the button will be betting a wide range here.

Once he calls your check-raise on a flop this dry, though, I give up-- if I thought I could push him off a king I might go for it, but I usually don't try to push players off strong hands for their SPR, and he's invested over 1/3 of his stack already-- I'm guessing he has at least strong top pair.

(Now, for other turns: If I get a steel wheel card, I think I'd split between betting small to try to see a cheap river or jamming, depending on my thoughts on villain and situation-- basically, how likely I think he is to call flop and fold turn. If it's just a flush card, I'm more likely betting small but maybe jamming. If it's an ace, I might bet for value, since with 3/4 pot behind effectively I'm probably not getting away from top pair and I want to get more out of Kx hands (he never has AK here because it's a perfect spot to squeeze shove it preflop).)

All that said: In your spot, the bubble and the ICM situation make this play significantly worse. Because you cover all your opponents, they're likely playing tighter ranges than usual, especially against you, and are less likely to put money in speculatively or without solid holdings. You should be leveraging your chip lead to take small pots the easy way, not big pots the hard way.