Quote:
Originally Posted by Moofey
100 entrants, 11 paid, 30 people left
Blinds 1k-2k-2k BB ante
Hero 58k eff
Villain covers
CO (Hero) raises with K8cc to 4k
SB (villain) calls
BB calls
Flop 7c 9c 2d
x, x hero bets 6k
sb raises to 15k
bb folds
hero calls
Turn 6s
Villain shoves
what does hero do with 2nd nut flush draw + open ender?
I would sigh fold turn. You need to call 39 to win 124 so 31.45% equity. Based on outs I think are good- I think you have about 15 outs so 30% equity. Sometimes villian will have an A flush draw which crushes you and mainly will be up against 2pair and sets a lot here. I think most logical villian holding is 10-8 or a set (think set is most likely due to sb flat).
I would fold here after running numbers If you had better odds liked 20-25%, I think it’s a clear sigh call and hope we bink river.
On to how hand is played. I love the min open. Well done- no reason to make it 4.5 or 5k here. It would tilt me if you make it 4.5k here bc it serves no purpose- we are perfectly fine with a bb defend and owning the bb if they feel like calling. Hmm flop- I think I check back flop as a disguise to my hand and the fact this board favors a bb defend range in comparison to ours. I think betting this flop is meh against 2. The bb range is going to love this flop somewhat so I think checking back and disguising our hand is wonderful.
If we x back. Sb probably leads say 9-10k on turn (60% pot will be our guess) and we can just call and make their life miserable on rivers. When we bink a straight our flush on the river, we can just punish sb and x back or fold when we don’t realize our winning equity on river. I like pot control on this flop against 2, it would be different if cbet against 1 but not here against 2. I might also x back flop against a single bb defend bc the bb is going to have a fair amount of x raises which kinda makes the hand dicey to play on turn and river. X back flop and proceed with pot control. Getting x raised here on flop bloats the pot against a strong range where we need to hit a flush or some combo of 2 cards for a straight which is never good.