Daily live tournament, blinds 600/1200/1200. I have about 18K before posting, villain covers, no strong reads. UTG+2 limps, folds to me in BB with 32o and I check. Flop is 772,r, I check, villain bets 2K. Should a fold, call, or checkraise? Should I have led? If I continue, what is the plan?

You might want to just fold and pick another spot. In my mind it is tricky to navigate but I am also not as skilled as many here, in fact I am a big fish haha.
I think you would be more likely to have the nut advantage, so you have all the 7s and 2s. You obviously block him have 22 and he never has 72. His hands are likely mid pairs and maybe hands like Q10,J10,K10,66,55,44,33, A2s and sometimes he is trying to be slick with AA for a check raise pre flop. I am sure there are other hands you can think of in that range... Anyway in saying that you can get most of them to fold by the river even aces if he is a thinking player. He may show up with 78s sometimes but not that often i'd imagine. So in saying that you have a couple of options if you don't want to just de-risk and fold haha.
I would be inclined to check raise small on the flop. then either jam turn or check with the hopes they check behind to jam the river. (They will feel like you were baiting the check raise on the turn this way). At this point they have to put you on atleast the 7,, right??
The other option is a small bet so you can get away if they raise you.. I guess it depends on both hero and villains image.
I would like to know a guns thought process here!

i am peeling the flop and hoping he checks down Ahi. Probably folding to any future action

Where are you in relation to cut line? I'm not an expert in tournament play but I do know if you are near the cut line and have other shorties in the game then chip retention is much more important than chasing chips.

This is early in the tournament. I have a little more than my starting stack and more than half the entries are still in.

I folded the flop, but thought it might be weak.

Would it be better to lead or x/r this? I could do that as a bluff and hear I have something.

If we lead it feels like we're just taking ourselves to value town if we're up against a small pair, which is a likely holding for the opponent who limped. I would take the passive line and just call the flop bet.

And if we check/call against a small pair we're getting value towned, too.

I guess we keep bluffs in by check-calling, but the problem with this specific hand in this scenario is that there are no good cards that can come out and we can't take any pressure. If villain is just gonna immediately give up if he doesn't improve, then check-calling is fine. Otherwise we're kinda asking to just get blasted off the hand anyway. So maybe a lead to try to clear out some six-outers is fine. Or even a check-raise, which might get some folds we want and could very much look like 7x. A lot of this is opponent-dependent, really, and it's hard to say what I'd do without a better sense of their play style or limping range.

I probably lead out as this is HU.

The reason I lead is that UTG+2 may just bet without a pair especially with an A or two broadways because we can have anything. Because we checked it is likely we don't have 2x and yes we can have a 7 but not very likely.

Another reason I lead out is that it can work in getting a fold. UTG+2 just might not be willing to call withot a pair. And even with a small pair might fold. However if Villain calls I would not be betting or calling moving forward unless a 2 comes on the turn.

I'd look for a better spot. We are in such bad shape when we are behind, and my experience in limped pots is facing lots of small pairs.

When a passive player takes an aggressive action, they tend to be unbalanced towards strong hands.

Lead is better than check/call.

Interesting spot - given it's low stakes I'm presuming I think calling the flop once is ideal with plans to x/f the rest. I think at higher stakes vs better opponents if we were deeper I'd consider calling the flop and jamming the river if it went check/check. As played though in a cheap daily I don't think people are capable of realizing either you have 7x/22 or turning a 2 into a bluff and fold better hands.

ItÂ’s early in a daily, just toss it and move on.

Hard to believe you fold more than half the times in the turn without being exploitable

Even harder to believe you can fold even once on the flop

You think he's never got worse than a pair?

Then raise, right?

I personally don't have enough confidence in my assumptions to definitively say I believe either pure xr or pure xc flop is best

Personally, I think its a mixed strategy mostly call sometimes raise. Never fold.

Raising/donking the flop makes no sense - would never do it with trips/FH and we have a bluff catcher. Think check/call is your only option - the good thing is the turn should go check/check a lot as you're uncapped, so have a shot for a cheap showdown. If we were deeper I think we have more options on the turn/river but I'm not trying to turn this into a bluff this shallow in a cheap tournament.

I was able to come up with many pairs of ranges which seem pretty justifiable that give different equilibria such as:

-OOP lead flop sometimes vs never lead flop
-OOP always xf this combo vs never fold ever
-OOP play mixed xr or fold with no calling
-OOP play pure xr with 32s+backdoor


Some assumptions you'll get results where IP bet-mix flop with two nonsmall cards or bc pure with just 2 nonsmall cards and a backdoor. Why wouldnt somebody call KTs on 7s7x2y vs bb check pre range when thr xr size in 3bb? I came up with multiple limp pre ranges where thats printing chips. And the more he folds the more xr becomes optimal, not lezz

Why not consider xr small barrel turns small and x-mix river if IP calls KT twice or something like that. Why not think he can have:

JhTs on 7h7c2s9d3c
KcQc on 7h7c2s5cTh
Ad3d in 7d7c2s4h6d
etc?

this one gets to showdown for all the chips surprisingly often. Ranges can be quite wide. True limping range and flop stray is anyones guess. Dont rule anything out here.

hate this because even if a 2 or 3 comes on the turn and villain keeps firing, are we still happy with our hand?

NLHE tournaments solved!

hey unironically solving the game isnt really about computing definitively perfect strategies. It's about your problem solving technique--your algorithm for making assumptions and computing strategies. All circumscribed with mental toughness to accept losing in pursuit of gaining an edge--competitiveness.

Its about justification, precision (not necessarily accuracy which is much harder/impossible to achieve with so much imperfect information) and gumption to go with some wacky strats sometimes.

Its about accepting that 10 people can come up with 10 different solutions, each justifiable.

Its about establishing certain practices to supplement your work, especially data analysis.

Ultimately "solving" poker is about acceping that very rarely will anyone fully agree with something and so almost always , the best you can strive for is to be as justifiably different from everyone else as possible. Assume higher levels of being exploitable (risk) in exchange for potentially higher rewards. Then after that, its about hoping for the best and using precision to make it easier to adjust afterwards

GTO is not a strategy, its a component of an integrative framework and its a philosophy. "Solving" poker is about having the right framework in place.

Poker is an actuarial endeavor more than it's anything else.

Worst punt of 2024, this hand or Foxen’s bustout in the ME?

This wasn't a punt because I folded. I thought that was weak, but feel better now that it seems like an interesting situation with no consensus. I see the point that it was a limper "cbetting", who might not be aggressive, so might have a pp, in which case I could almost always only win by bluffing. It is also only 2-1 against over cards. Kind of interesting how weak this hand is on one of its best flops.

3 kinds of people who become actuaries:

I took actuarial exams. I was going to be a casualty actuary, as it seemed more interesting than mortality tables. However, most of what they do is deal with BS arguments with state insurance departments which are sort of a cover for corruption. Eventually the rate increase goes through when they pay someone off.