I didn't know what to do here, I have a nice stack and didnt want to risk my tournament life on what could be a coinflip

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t250 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB (t5350)
BB (t15900)
UTG (t12317)
UTG+1 (t17030)
MP1 (t16315)
MP2 (t5853)
MP3 (t10938)
CO (t16765)
Hero (t28887)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t17005, 1 fold, MP2 calls t5828 (All-In), 5 folds.

Cheers

If it's a coin flip, it's an insta-call.

What range do you assign to UTG+1 and MP2?

This guy had done this about 3 times, a short stack called him once and he had kk. I dont think he was this strong each time he did this but, he wasn't called so i dont know.

I wasn't that bothered about MP2 as he had just under 6k and i would be calling him.

Then it's an insta call.

Even though i've seen him do this with KK?

KK and AA are in his range, but both must be discounted slightly because you have AK (pokerstove does this automatically).

I would say his range is JJ+, AQ+ and probably assign about the same range to MP2 (maybe include 99+). You need 42.2% for a call to be +Cev. I don't have stove at work, someone run the numbers please.

I can't get the numbers to come out. How did you arrive at 42.2%?

thanks

If he calls, the total pot is 17005 (utg+1) + 5828 (mp1) + 17005 (hero's call) +375 blinds = t40,213 in the pot. 17005/40213 = 42.28%

Thanks Brad. So this means he has to win 42.2% of the time for this to be a +cev call?

Sorry but this gives me trouble. and sorry for the highjack.

42.28% is exactly neutral Cev. Anything above that is +Cev.

If all stacks were equal:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,097,253,620 games 3.156 secs 664,529,030 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.346% 20.52% 07.83% 430322803 164158619.17 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 35.452% 29.82% 05.63% 625372959 118144830.67 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 36.202% 31.77% 04.44% 666236853 93017555.17 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }


---

Against only UTG+1:

66,779,856 games 0.005 secs 13,355,971,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.106% 38.23% 11.88% 25529440 7931059.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 49.894% 38.02% 11.88% 25388298 7931059.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Probably a pretty close call.