btn seems like a reasonably decent player. I've only played with him in the $235s and he's up a little over a pretty small sample of games. Stats are 34/30/ 4.8ag after 240 hands. He opens lots of btns and 3bets 13% from co and same on btn. The bb is a random playing 47/13 after 36hands. Anybody do anything different pre or otf?

I fold to 3bet pre, hard to see how its going to be profitable for us against 2 players. Set odds aren't there too.

hmm... Imo odds are there.

7.5:1 for hitting set+
Having about stacksize pot otf I guess our implieds are huge as well. We should get paid off often.

Very ugly to fold TT on such a dry flop, but what can you do... T_T

Think he will 3bet A9 or 22? Setmines 66/99?

It's a shove or fold pre, if only for the reason that your opponent
can make you fold waaaayyy too much postflop, especially considering
fish BB coldcalled, and you'd likely be pushing a hand slightly better than what you have now

I fold pf and call flop, I have a hard time seeing him shove a hand that beats you, just looks like he wants folds. Maybe A9 like someone mentioned is the worst hand I could see him shove, and maybe JJ, but i think he will have alot of AKo/KQs overcard type hands that missed. And it is a good dry flop for him to shove, maybe he does it with his JJ+ hands too, I doubt it tho.

this is exactly how he should play JJ+ ;p

Do you think he plays a set the same way? seems like hes gonna lose alot of value, maybe not vs so bad vs hero (reg vs reg) but vs BB I think its better to bet smallish (at least with KK/AA)

Really? Why would he ship AA/KK here? What's he getting value from? I would think he has like TT-QQ/AK more often than not assuming this isn't a crazy bluff. I'm not going to run a stove on that range, but I would think it's a marginally profitable to call.

Considering the preflop action I wouldn't ship hands like AQ/AK otf if I were the BU. That leaves not much room for worse hands he shoves there.

well I mean in his spot bet/ call and shove is pretty much the same thing he's not bet/folding aif he wants to shove his ak/aq then he better shove all his big pairs too. what else would you do with aa and kk in his spot I guess you can check and induce the turn once in a while too. The whole small/ lead crap doesn't really expand on anyone's check/raising or calling range unless they are mega uber fishies. I'm more likely to get more worried if someone leads 400 with stacks.

Shove over 3bet pre. His 3 bet stats are high to start with, given that you're opening reasonably wide (from what I remember) and it's a smallish open size and from someone he prob perceives will fold a lot to 3 bet I would think he can 3 bet you more frequently than his stats in this spot.

As played on flop not sure, villain dependent, but with the fish in the hand doesnt he get more value from AA/KK by betting small here.

Calling pre doesn't make any sense if you're even considering folding on that flop.

This, your implied odds aren't really there, and he will often not pay you off when you hit a set, especially because your data indicates he plays a pretty balanced range with some weak as well as strong. So as has been pointed out already, you A) won't always elicit value when you hit, and B) you will often fold the best hand. Given that this guy isn't just a nit and you state he does this a fair bit, you can stick it in pre. Remember what his calling range has to be versus your 4bet, and compare that to the 3bet range you have on him.

glgl

I didn't even notice the BB called initially but yeah occasionally he flats the nuts and often he's donating chips to the pot. With a hand like TT you'd only really be flatting based on implied odds when it's gonna be a 3-way pot against one guy you're ranging strong (the only reason you didn't 4bet him pre, therefore you're ranging him on more overpairs than underpairs to your JJ, and therefore you're only gonna get it in postflop when you hit. Based on that logic you would have to fold preflop).

Shove pre.

Perhaps but you gotta be careful. On a board as dry as this, if the amount someone bets can alter how you perceive where you are in the hand, you're susceptible to getting exploited against strong players who can just play on that fact, especially in 6-max where you'll play the same guys constantly. This is with regards to the last sentence I underlined. Therefore, the difference it does make is the amount of chips you are forced to put in the middle with your weak range, assuming you are playing a balanced strategy with both weak and strong range.

Based on that logic you would have to call pre, don't you? B/c if you give him credit for a very strong range, you should be able to call just for set+ value. I mean we have to earn just t531 more chips on average to make the call being break even in chips. Imo that's not unlikely at all.
(feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.)

Maybe given the size of the pot with the BB calling it makes the implied odds requirement a bit lower, I'm not completely sure we figure to stack off enough when hitting to make it profitable still, but I could be wrong. That is definitely a fair point compared to standard set mining situations. One other thing is when we do hit a set we aren't a 100% favourite, and sometimes much much worse on really wet boards, occasionally we'll run into set under set too.

^well, no hand is 100% favourite, but if hitting a set otf we're ahead almost always. Pretty unlikely to run into a bigger set otf. Same with flopped flushes or straights imo.
The likelyhood of beeing behind if hitting a set is very low imo, although I don't have numbers to prove that.

Of course, it's just to show that required implied odds must include chance of villain not paying off and chance of losing when we hit. That way we can calculate implied odds required is far greater than probability of hitting a set.

Often you'll hear someone say when reviewing a hand "yeah but I knew he was always gonna go all in if I hit so I knew I was gettin good enough odds".

definitely agree. People were discussing that they expect villain to bet aa and kk and not shove it so as to get more value from the fish, I was saying in order to be balanced then villain shouldn't do that. I guess with a fish in the hand there is less of a reason to be perfectly balanced though.

his allin can be specially targeting hero because he percieves his range as stronger one than fishes.

Also id play QQ+ on this flop as allin like 100% of the time, cbet looks too scary.

Villain preflop range doesn't change when he pushes flop. Its still probably TT+,AK. Id imagine noone pushes AK here.

Ok you're right about the range he's representing. There's no way you can convince me that this guy is incapable of 3betting a polarized range in this spot. I mean if he 3bets like 10% then ships this type of board he could easily ship his whole range because we can only call with sets unless we decided to take the flop MW with a big pair. I don't think we can really fold here when we hit like the second best scenario on the flop. We see no over cards and the over caller folded. We weren't getting direct odds to set mine so if we fold here we should have folded pre.

So you think we stack at least one of them half the time we hit our set?

^exactly.
And as you and others said, he might be able to ship flops like this with his complete range, b/c we can't really call him with a lot besides a monster. So yeah, I'm still convinced we have the odds to call for setvalue pre.