Looking for opinions. GTO solver says it’s a shove ~80% of the time but I’m not so sure it’s that frequent.

Hero is MP with 25BB
V is SB with 60BB

We are ~9 off the bubble but hero could care less about mincashing, though recent post in here talks a lot about how ICM effects should be taken into account far earlier than most do.

Action folds to Hero who raises to 2.1BB with 77, folds to Villain who 3! To 7.4BB, BB folds, Hero…

Villain is a proven winning reg at these stakes.

What’s your move?

How big the field is definitely has an impact on how far you really are from the bubble. How big BB's stack is also matters, because if it's similar to yours or shorter he can just rip in a lot of the hands he doesn't want a call with but have decent equity when they are called. If that's a realistic strategy then his 3-bet is going to be more polarized. And that will affect the equation for your decision:

Anyway, based on the info we have, if you don't care about mincashing I'd think this is definitely a shove, considering the factors that

a)Villain probably is 3-betting from the small blind frequently as it's preferable to flatting, generally speaking, so he'll 3-bet hands here that he would just call from the big blind,

and with regards to the bubble,

b)He may assume you care about the bubble and will be 3-betting even wider than usual as a result, and
c)He may also assume your 4-betting range is tighter than usual and fold some hands he might 3-bet/call (like the suited broadway type hands you aren't thrilled to 3-bet/call with here, but getting almost 2:1 you'd have to).

Mostly it depends on how wide I think he's calling a 4-bet shove here. I don't want to flip on the bubble, but I do think he's 3-betting wide enough that you should be able to make him fold a lot of his 3-bets with a shove, and you're only behind a fairly small percentage of those 3-bets. But, again, this does depend on BB's stack, because if he can safely rip in here with stuff like KTs / QJs then his range is more polarized and you're really looking more to fold out the Ax/Kx blocker bluff 3-bets.

How wide is the villain 3bing? You can get generic answers but that's really the true question none of us can answer. I would also note his 3b sizing is very large to 3b/fold, so based off of that alone I would probably fold this.