The field is so ridiculously soft that my vocabulary doesn't contain enough words to describe it. It consists almost entirely of superbad French players. 25 left, 9 paid. Average is about 8k. I've played with this villain a lot, and based on everything I'm about 99,8% sure his range here is exactly AK. Can I fold this because of my edge against the field?


Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t75.00/t150.00 Blinds - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: t6464.00 43.09 BBs
Hero (BTN): t22640.00 150.93 BBs
SB: t4139.00 27.59 BBs
BB: t17865.00 119.10 BBs
UTG: t2694.00 17.96 BBs

Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is BTN with Q Q
1 fold, CO raises to t300, Hero raises to t900, 1 fold, BB raises to t17845, 2 folds

I definitely could find a fold with this type of read. Why would you want to flip with the guy who can potentially decimate your stack when you can just keep grinding out smaller pots (barring a strong hand) and crush the field. You only have 6 out of your 151bbs invested. Don't need to always take the small edges, one has to assess the totality of the circumstances. I'm sure you can tell i am on the nitty side, but since you say the field is terrible I would rather keep my huge stack and continue to dominate. If the field was tougher than a call becomes more proper.

For this to work , you have to be 100% sure he has exactly AK. Cause I would sure hate my life to see him flash JJ after we fold.

You can't fold here. I'm sure he does this with AQ or JJ sometimes too

QQ is 58% against AKo, I snap call here.

If ur read is close to right, I'm agreeing its a small edge yes u will be huge but if the field is so soft you can find a better spot to get it in being better then a flip, his range is pretty small I think, so fold and find a better spot they will come

If i was playing against some of the worst poker players on the planet then ya i'd fold it and not even feel bad about doing so, they would have to be really really bad though. The fact that you're giving him credit for AK here though suggests that he is not one of the worst poker players on the planet, I'm confused.

But i mean folding QQ 5-handed should be illegal

preety std fold imo. if the feild was any good this is a stnd call. against as soft as a feild u state, calling here with KK maybe be a slight mistake (im obv still doing it).

(and let's not discuss his range here, let's just say for simplicity's sake that he's showing AK face up here)

It's exactly 56-44 against Villain's entire range. So there's not a field in the world you'd fold this against?What if you've both doubled up during the first orbit of WSOP ME and then this happens in a table full of 80 year olds?

lolwat

First off, you have him covered, so if you lose an all-in, you'll still have 30+ BBs to play with, which is what effective stacks would be against most remaining players if you folded anyways.

I'd consider folding this if you had a very large edge against the other big stack, but since he has positional advantage over you, I'm skeptical that that's the case. And even then I still might call. A 56-44 edge is pretty substantial when stacks are shallow like this.

std.

Can you briefly describe how you came up with this read? Claiming that someone has exactly ONE hand preflop is questionable. I'm not saying that it's not possible...buuut...

I mean, how many times has he done this to you and showed you AK?

Yeah I think JJ is more likely than AK, as sometimes he flats with AK and almost always shoves with JJ

The field would have to be worse than superbad french players to fold this.

Maybe against 25 of my wives.....but not here. Snap-call.......

fyp, sir.

your 'thought' is ridiculous. Just because of his perceived image doesn't put him on one hand. If he doesn't have AK, what does he have? Easily JJ, and maybe even KK. AA highly doubtful. As deep as stacks are I probably call with a grudge, only 2 hands beat you outright. I wouldn't be surprised if you fold based on your perception of how moronic the remaining field left is. Annoying spot.

Again I'm not interested in discussing his range here. This is a small network (it's not pokerstars despite the converter saying so for some reason), I play with him an absolute ton and unless he misclicked he just simply never has anything else.

What I'm still not getting is why I need to take a 56-44 "flip" here. Is there any mathematical way to solve this? I believe I'm winning something like 1BB+/orbit in this table if I just fold. So by laying this down I'm losing x amount of BBs but how do you calculate the exact amount? If the amount is something like 15BBs, don't I just make up for it by folding and simply playing for 15 more orbits? I know it's not that black and white, but is there a chance this could be solvable using a model (but a more complicated one) than the one I came up with? I suck at math.

I don't think there is a model to solve this, as it is impossible to quantify your edge on the field. If you think your edge is huge this is a fold and its not close

QQ is a good hand.

You don't "need" to take this flip. You don't ever "need" to do anything in poker. But, on average, you will make more money calling here than folding, so if to like money, you should call.

Another point I'm gonna make here is that poker players, in general severely underestimate how big a 55-45 edge is. Imagine that 1024 (2^10) people enter a "flipament," in which players match up against one another and flip a coin. The winner of the coin flip advances to the next round while the loser is eliminated. Play proceeds until just one person remains (we'll say winner-take-all for the sake of argument). You decide to enter this "flipament." However, you have a weighted coin which you will use each time, ensuring yourself a 55-45 edge in each round. So, the chances of you winning the tournament is (.55)^10, since you need to win 10 flips to win the tournament. (.55)^10 = .002533, which means that .2533% of the time, you win 1024 times your initial investment (assuming no rake), and 99.7467% of the time, you win nothing. Based on that, if you enter this flipament an infinite number of times, your long-run ROI will be 159% (1024 x .02533 = 2.59).

Now compare that to a 1024-player poker tournament. If you were to do nothing but enter all-in coin flips with a 55-45 edge for your entire stack, you would have an average ROI of 159%, which is pretty ****ing good. Obviously, there's a lot more to poker than that, but based on that contrived hypothetical, I'm inclined to believe that passing up 55-45 edges because of your supposed massive edge on the field is a very poor decision. If anyone with a more advanced statistical background would like to argue the point I just made, go ahead.

Now I understand why ftn_chris is flaming you all the time.

When I play 1$ tournaments I also fold AA pre cause I feel so godlike.
I actually don't play any hands. Just enjoying how awesome I am.

I read in the mathematic of poker than in order to pass up a QQ vs AKo flip with no dead money in the pot you need to have an ROI of 285%, I took that to mean that nobody is good enough to pass those up.

nice post