[LOW] $20 MTT, $40k guaranteed, 50BB, Full house vs bigger Full house, any way to get out alive? - MTT Poker Strategy

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[LOW] $20 MTT, $40k guaranteed, 50BB, Full house vs bigger Full house, any way to get out alive?

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01-03-2023 , 11:03 AM

whiteciny

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2022 Posts: 12

Just moved to this table, so no info of other players, ITM still a bit far, even if we re actualyl inside ITM.

PokerStars, €18 + €2 - Hold'em No Limit - 3,000/6,000 (750 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: 322,273 (54 bb)
MP: 141,180 (24 bb)
MP+1: 733,780 (122 bb)
CO: 236,350 (39 bb)
BU: 175,415 (29 bb)
SB: 273,976 (46 bb)
BB (Hero): 308,243 (51 bb)

Pre-Flop: (14,250) Hero is BB with 7♦ 7♣
1 fold, MP raises to 13,200, MP+1 calls 13,200, 3 players fold, Hero calls 7,200

Flop: (47,850) 7♠ Q♣ 6♥ (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 14,834, MP+1 calls 14,834, Hero calls 14,834

Turn: (92,352) Q♦ (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, MP+1 bets 48,000, Hero calls 48,000, MP folds

River: (188,352) A♠ (2 players)
Hero bets 90,000, MP+1 raises to 656,996 (all-in), Hero calls 141,459 (all-in)

Total pot: 651,270

Showdown:
MP+1 shows A♦ Q♥ (a full house, Queens full of Aces)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 45%, Flop: 2%, Turn: 16%, River: 100%)

BB (Hero) shows 7♦ 7♣ (a full house, Sevens full of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 55%, Flop: 98%, Turn: 84%, River: 0%)

MP+1 wins 651,270

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01-03-2023 , 11:57 AM

ojsimpson32

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2021 Posts: 151

I mean I’m never folding but this isn’t great - kinda why I’m not a fan of the river donk. I think if V has QJ or QT they might just call the donk, where as if we x/jam they almost certainly bet/call. When we donk and they jam, I imagine it’s kq+, they’d have to be a psycho to bluff. So we definitely have to call seeing as they could have KQo in full.

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01-03-2023 , 12:05 PM

whiteciny

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2022 Posts: 12

Quote:

Originally Posted by ojsimpson32

I’m not a fan of the river donk.

Thanks for your reply, what do you mean with river donk? I was value betting 50% of the pot, thinking to be almost nut. So in general you think the hand is well played in every streets, condidering the V stacks.

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01-03-2023 , 02:23 PM

Beachman42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 4,365

I think if you flop a set multi-way there are merits to check/raising or check/calling the flop - your goal is to build as large a pot as possible.

If I did c/c the flop, I'm c/r the turn every time. The only issue is sizing is a bit awkward (V bets 48K and we have ~285K behind) - which likely means I needed to c/r the flop to set up a turn situation where I can get all the chips in the middle.

IMHO you played this hand too passively.

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01-03-2023 , 03:13 PM

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,687

I doubt I'm getting away, but I also want to add that I think you took the line designed to make the least money from this hand.

I'd probably check-raise the flop once I get a bet and a call. If not, then I'm definitely check-raising the turn. You have a huge hand and your opponent is indicating a lot of strength on the turn betting into two people. Once enough people show enough interest in the hand or strength, you should be working to build a pot and get the stacks in. Instead you kept playing passively until the river and then gave villain a chance to get away without doubling you up if he just had Qx.

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01-03-2023 , 07:28 PM

dchen

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 47

Flop seems like a must-raise especially since you're deep with MP1. Donking river seems bad because MP1 will bet so often for you, but we literally only lose to AQ here so I don't think we're getting away.

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01-03-2023 , 11:37 PM

whiteciny

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2022 Posts: 12

Quote:

Originally Posted by dchen

Donking river seems bad because MP1 will bet so often for you.

So you mean the way i played, i should have c/r the river instead of donking?

I m still thinkin that with this stack, V would still have jammed river after my check, or at least a potsize bet, and I would still have had to call with my full house.

Thanks everybody.

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01-05-2023 , 12:52 PM

stremba70

adept

Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 1,114

I think you may be missing the point because you are being too results oriented. Your goal when you hit the set should have been to get all your chips into the pot and (at least) get a double up. You seem focused on how you could have avoided the very situation that you should have been seeking. Villain will not always have AQ and bust you in these spot - usually they won’t. Sometimes you are just supposed to lose all your chips; this was one of those times.

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01-05-2023 , 07:50 PM

dchen

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 47

Quote:

Originally Posted by whiteciny

Yeah check-jam river, I think you're happy to get it in

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01-08-2023 , 09:43 AM

#10

PandaPokerYT

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2022 Posts: 37

vs 2 ppl, CR flop seems to be a better option to get value from that Q, with that play I would have stacked off on the turn I think as no one would fold their Q. On the river it's tough to get away. "Hate life and stack off" (Dough Polk).

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01-09-2023 , 02:45 PM

#11

oldskool87

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 843

I think if we don’t c/r the flop I would definitely check raise the turn then we’re getting it in

As played not folding either but I believe the c/r line on earlier streets will be better overall, we want to get max value from a Q or overpairs

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